About · SportsGap
About

About SportsGap

SportsGap publishes model probabilities for MLB, WNBA, KBO and NPB games (moneylines, game totals and team totals) next to what the betting market implies, along with a full record of how those numbers have done.

The sections below describe the MLB page. Each league's page explains its own rules at the top, and every page has a "How to read this page" key.

What you see on the page

For each game we show the model's probability for its side and the book's probability once the bookmaker's margin (the vig) is removed. The gap between the two is how far the model disagrees with the market, in percentage points.

Numbers update through the day as starting pitchers are confirmed and lineups are posted. Rows marked Lineups use the posted batting orders; rows marked Projected were made before lineups came out.

Tier 1 and Tier 2

Tier 1 is available all day. Tier 2 updates the numbers once both teams' lineups are posted, usually 1 to 3 hours before first pitch. The pick and units follow Tier 2 when it is available, otherwise Tier 1; the tier in use is shown in bold. A red tier number means that tier leans the other way.

Tier 2 knows more, but it also has fewer games behind it, since it only runs when lineups are posted in time. The track record shows both tiers separately.

Our suggested plays

Both rules were set on 10/01/2026. Results before that date are a backtest, and the track record keeps a separate row that counts only games after the rule was set.

How results are graded

Every game is graded on the last update before first pitch, at the price posted at that time, with no picks removed after the fact. Pushes on whole-number totals are counted as pushes. The record shows a 95% range for ROI so you can see how much of a result could be luck.

Play responsibly

This site is for entertainment and information. It is not betting advice, and no model wins every day or every month. You must be 21 or older and in a place where sports betting is legal. If gambling stops being fun, call or text 1-800-GAMBLER.

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