SS@DOO
Samsung Lions at Doosan Bears
MLDOO+12950.2%+8.52u✗-2.00u
TotalU 9≈-12256.5%+4.2Pass✗
TTSS U 4.5≈-10451.6%+2.9Pass✗
TTDOO O 3.5-11357.1%+6.42u✓+1.77u
NC@SSG
NC Dinos at SSG Landers
MLNC-17066.1%+6.02u✗-2.00u
TotalO 9.5-10652.0%+3.0Pass✓
TTNC O 5.5+10053.8%+6.12u✗-2.00u
TTSSG O 3.5-11856.3%+4.71u✓+0.85u
KIW@KIA
Kiwoom Heroes at KIA Tigers
MLKIA-16161.2%+2.3Pass✗
TotalU 9≈-13955.6%+0.2Pass✗
TTKIW U 3.5≈-10753.0%+3.71u✗-1.00u
TTKIA U 4.5≈-12355.5%+2.8Pass✗
KT@LT
KT Wiz at Lotte Giants
MLKT-18061.9%+0.6Pass✓
TotalU 10≈-11463.6%+12.72u✓+1.75u
TTKT U 5.5≈-11454.9%+4.11u✓+0.88u
TTLT O 3.5-12553.3%+0.3Pass✓
LG@HH
LG Twins at Hanwha Eagles
MLLG-17457.7%-2.9Pass✗
TotalU 10.5≈-10552.1%+3.2Pass✗
TTLG O 5.5-12352.9%+0.3Pass✗
TTHH O 4.5+11154.0%+8.82u✓+2.22u
How units are set
- Moneyline: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+
- Totals: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap
- Team totals: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+
How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
How the units work. Each market stakes by the gap between the model and the book's no-vig price: moneylines pass under 3 points, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+; totals bet the over at an 8+ point gap and the under only when the model gives it 60%+ with a 3+ point gap, 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap; team totals pass under 3, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+. Since mid-July the KBO model has been more accurate than the book on moneylines and team totals. On totals only the biggest gaps have won, on a small sample. Late in the season, when exactly one team has nothing left to play for (eliminated, or its final standing is clinched), the moneyline moves 5 points of win probability from that team to the other side: such teams may rest regulars, and the raw model rates them too high. When the moneyline gap is 20 points or more, the whole game is a pass (moneyline, total and team totals): a gap that big usually means the book knows something the model doesn't.
KBO Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+.
-4.00u
0-2 · 1u / 2u rule · 4u risked
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SS@DOO Samsung Lions at Doosan Bears | -157 / +129 | DOO | 50.2% | 41.7% | +8.5 | 2u | Lost ✗ -2.00u |
NC@SSG NC Dinos at SSG Landers | -170 / +139 | NC | 66.1% | 60.1% | +6.0 | 2u | Lost ✗ -2.00u |
KIW@KIA Kiwoom Heroes at KIA Tigers | +132 / -161 | KIA | 61.2% | 58.9% | +2.3 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
KT@LT KT Wiz at Lotte Giants | -180 / +146 | KT | 61.9% | 61.3% | +0.6 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
LG@HH LG Twins at Hanwha Eagles | -174 / +142 | LG | 57.7% | 60.6% | -2.9 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 5-3 · -1.17u on 14u · -8.4% ROI
KBO Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price. Units: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap.
+1.75u
1-0 · 1u / 2u · over 8+ / under 60%+ rule · 2u risked
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KT@LT KT Wiz at Lotte Giants | 10 | -106 / ≈-114 | Under | 63.6% | 50.9% | +12.7 | 2u | Won ✓ +1.75u |
SS@DOO Samsung Lions at Doosan Bears | 9 | +100 / ≈-122 | Under | 56.5% | 52.4% | +4.2 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
LG@HH LG Twins at Hanwha Eagles | 10.5 | -115 / ≈-105 | Under | 52.1% | 48.9% | +3.2 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
NC@SSG NC Dinos at SSG Landers | 9.5 | -106 / ≈-115 | Over | 52.0% | 49.0% | +3.0 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
KIW@KIA Kiwoom Heroes at KIA Tigers | 9 | +114 / ≈-139 | Under | 55.6% | 55.5% | +0.2 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
Rule record from 10/06 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
KBO Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+.
+2.71u
4-2 · 1u / 2u / 3u rule · 9u risked
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KIW@KIA Kiwoom Heroes at KIA Tigers | KIW | 3.5 | -113 / ≈-107 | Under | 53.0% | 49.4% | +3.7 | 1u | Lost ✗ -1.00u |
KIW@KIA Kiwoom Heroes at KIA Tigers | KIA | 4.5 | +102 / ≈-123 | Under | 55.5% | 52.7% | +2.8 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
KT@LT KT Wiz at Lotte Giants | KT | 5.5 | -107 / ≈-114 | Under | 54.9% | 50.8% | +4.1 | 1u | Won ✓ +0.88u |
KT@LT KT Wiz at Lotte Giants | LT | 3.5 | -125 / ≈+103 | Over | 53.3% | 53.0% | +0.3 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
LG@HH LG Twins at Hanwha Eagles | LG | 5.5 | -123 / ≈+101 | Over | 52.9% | 52.6% | +0.3 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
LG@HH LG Twins at Hanwha Eagles | HH | 4.5 | +111 / ≈-135 | Over | 54.0% | 45.2% | +8.8 | 2u | Won ✓ +2.22u |
NC@SSG NC Dinos at SSG Landers | NC | 5.5 | +100 / ≈-122 | Over | 53.8% | 47.6% | +6.1 | 2u | Lost ✗ -2.00u |
NC@SSG NC Dinos at SSG Landers | SSG | 3.5 | -118 / ≈-103 | Over | 56.3% | 51.6% | +4.7 | 1u | Won ✓ +0.85u |
SS@DOO Samsung Lions at Doosan Bears | SS | 4.5 | -116 / ≈-104 | Under | 51.6% | 48.7% | +2.9 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
SS@DOO Samsung Lions at Doosan Bears | DOO | 3.5 | -113 / ≈-107 | Over | 57.1% | 50.6% | +6.4 | 2u | Won ✓ +1.77u |
Rule record from 10/03 on: 21-10 · +10.11u on 51u · +19.8% ROI
Model's pick wonLost
Recent results
Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's gap rule (passes left out). ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.
+2.68u
24-15 · last 40 · 68u risked
| Date | Game | Market | Lean | Price | Model | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | SS @ KT | Moneyline | SS | -109 | 55.8% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/07 | NC @ SSG | Moneyline | SSG | -170 | 68.0% | Win | 2u | +1.18 |
| 10/07 | NC @ SSG | Team total | NC Under 4.5 | ≈-135 | 57.8% | Win | 1u | +0.74 |
| 10/07 | NC @ SSG | Team total | SSG Over 4.5 | -111 | 61.9% | Win | 3u | +2.70 |
| 10/07 | HH @ KIW | Moneyline | HH | -173 | 66.6% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/07 | HH @ KIW | Team total | HH Over 4.5 | -120 | 55.5% | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/07 | DOO @ LG | Moneyline | LG | -126 | 59.5% | Win | 2u | +1.59 |
| 10/07 | DOO @ LG | Team total | DOO Under 3.5 | ≈+103 | 50.7% | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/07 | DOO @ LG | Team total | LG Over 3.5 | -119 | 61.2% | Win | 2u | +1.68 |
| 10/06 | SS @ KIA | Team total | SS Over 4.5 | -107 | 54.2% | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 10/06 | SS @ KIA | Team total | KIA Under 5.5 | ≈-114 | 54.0% | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 10/06 | NC @ LG | Moneyline | LG | -181 | 66.9% | Win | 2u | +1.10 |
| 10/06 | NC @ LG | Team total | LG Over 5.5 | +101 | 50.7% | Win | 1u | +1.01 |
| 10/06 | KT @ KIW | Moneyline | KT | -261 | 72.6% | Win | 1u | +0.38 |
| 10/06 | KT @ KIW | Team total | KT Over 4.5 | -127 | 57.1% | Win | 1u | +0.79 |
| 10/06 | DOO @ LT | Team total | DOO Under 5.5 | ≈-125 | 57.9% | Win | 1u | +0.80 |
| 10/06 | DOO @ LT | Team total | LT Under 3.5 | ≈-106 | 53.4% | Win | 1u | +0.94 |
| 10/05 | SSG @ NC | Moneyline | SSG | -173 | 64.0% | Win | 1u | +0.58 |
| 10/05 | SSG @ NC | Team total | SSG Over 4.5 | -130 | 57.4% | Win | 1u | +0.77 |
| 10/05 | LT @ KT | Total | Over 9 | -112 | 61.3% | Push | 2u | +0.00 |
| 10/05 | LT @ KT | Team total | LT Under 4.5 | ≈-137 | 59.1% | Win | 1u | +0.73 |
| 10/05 | LT @ KT | Team total | KT Over 4.5 | -110 | 55.1% | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 10/05 | KIW @ HH | Team total | KIW Over 4.5 | -110 | 56.5% | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 10/05 | KIA @ LG | Moneyline | LG | -103 | 58.3% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/05 | KIA @ LG | Team total | KIA Under 4.5 | ≈-136 | 61.2% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/05 | KIA @ LG | Team total | LG Over 3.5 | -111 | 61.6% | Win | 3u | +2.70 |
| 10/05 | DOO @ SS | Team total | DOO Under 4.5 | ≈-130 | 58.9% | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/04 | SSG @ NC | Team total | NC Over 4.5 | -110 | 59.5% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | LT @ KT | Team total | KT Under 5.5 | ≈-125 | 64.7% | Win | 3u | +2.40 |
| 10/04 | KIW @ HH | Moneyline | KIW | -129 | 59.3% | Win | 2u | +1.55 |
| 10/04 | KIW @ HH | Team total | KIW Over 4.5 | -135 | 61.1% | Win | 2u | +1.48 |
| 10/04 | KIW @ HH | Team total | HH Over 4.5 | +103 | 55.6% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | KIA @ LG | Moneyline | KIA | +107 | 50.3% | Win | 2u | +2.14 |
| 10/04 | KIA @ LG | Team total | KIA Under 4.5 | ≈+103 | 52.2% | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/04 | DOO @ SS | Total | Under 9.5 | ≈-126 | 67.7% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | DOO @ SS | Team total | DOO Under 4.5 | ≈-129 | 67.5% | Loss | 3u | -3.00 |
| 10/04 | DOO @ SS | Team total | SS Under 4.5 | ≈-115 | 54.1% | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 10/03 | SSG @ NC | Moneyline | SSG | +137 | 55.4% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | SSG @ NC | Team total | SSG Over 3.5 | -131 | 62.4% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | SSG @ NC | Team total | NC Under 4.5 | ≈+113 | 59.1% | Loss | 3u | -3.00 |