KBO · SportsGap

KT@NC

KT Wiz at NC Dinos

MLKT-13565.4%+10.62u✓+1.48u

TotalU 10≈-10454.1%+5.5Pass–

TTKT O 5.5+10752.6%+6.62u✓+2.14u

TTNC U 4.5≈-12559.6%+6.62u✓+1.60u

DOO@SSG

Doosan Bears at SSG Landers

MLDOO-15156.8%-0.6Pass✓

TotalU 10≈-13761.6%+6.61u✓+0.73u

TTDOO O 4.5-13450.1%-4.5Pass✗

TTSSG O 3.5-12653.7%+0.5Pass✗

KIA@SS

KIA Tigers at Samsung Lions

MLKIA-14050.7%-4.9Pass✗

TotalU 11.5≈-14476.0%+19.72u✗-2.00u

TTKIA U 5.5≈-10461.9%+13.33u✓+2.88u

TTSS U 4.5≈-10553.8%+4.91u✗-1.00u

LT@HH

Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles

MLHH-20653.9%-10.3Pass✗

TotalU 9≈-11153.3%+3.1Pass✗

TTLT O 3.5-10753.7%+4.41u✓+0.93u

TTHH U 4.5≈+10952.2%+6.52u✓+2.18u

KIW@LG

Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins

MLLG-38462.4%-13.0Pass✓

TotalU 10≈-11354.6%+3.9Pass✓

TTKIW U 3.5≈-13550.3%-4.5Pass✓

TTLG U 6.5≈-12067.3%+15.33u✓+2.50u

How units are set

Moneyline: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+
Totals: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap
Team totals: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+

How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Each market stakes by the gap between the model and the book's no-vig price: moneylines pass under 3 points, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+; totals bet the over at an 8+ point gap and the under only when the model gives it 60%+ with a 3+ point gap, 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap; team totals pass under 3, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+. Since mid-July the KBO model has been more accurate than the book on moneylines and team totals. On totals only the biggest gaps have won, on a small sample. Late in the season, when exactly one team has nothing left to play for (eliminated, or its final standing is clinched), the moneyline moves 5 points of win probability from that team to the other side: such teams may rest regulars, and the raw model rates them too high. When the moneyline gap is 20 points or more, the whole game is a pass (moneyline, total and team totals): a gap that big usually means the book knows something the model doesn't.

KBO Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+.

+1.48u

1-0 · 1u / 2u rule · 2u risked

Game	Away / Home	Model pick	Model	Book	Gap	Units	Result
KT@NC KT Wiz at NC Dinos	-135 / +111	KT	65.4%	54.8%	+10.6	2u	Won ✓ +1.48u
DOO@SSG Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	-151 / +124	DOO	56.8%	57.4%	-0.6	Pass	Won ✓ pass
KIA@SS KIA Tigers at Samsung Lions	-140 / +115	KIA	50.7%	55.6%	-4.9	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
LT@HH Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles	+166 / -206	HH	53.9%	64.2%	-10.3	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
KIW@LG Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins	+286 / -384	LG	62.4%	75.4%	-13.0	Pass	Won ✓ pass

Rule record from 10/05 on: 5-3 · -1.17u on 14u · -8.4% ROI

KBO Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price. Units: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap.

-1.27u

1-1 · 1u / 2u · over 8+ / under 60%+ rule · 3u risked

Game	Total	Over / Under	Lean	Model	Book	Gap	Units	Result
KIA@SS KIA Tigers at Samsung Lions	11.5	+118 / ≈-144	Under	76.0%	56.3%	+19.7	2u	Lost ✗ -2.00u
DOO@SSG Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	10	+112 / ≈-137	Under	61.6%	55.1%	+6.6	1u	Won ✓ +0.73u
KT@NC KT Wiz at NC Dinos	10	-117 / ≈-104	Under	54.1%	48.6%	+5.5	Pass	Push – pass
KIW@LG Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins	10	-107 / ≈-113	Under	54.6%	50.6%	+3.9	Pass	Won ✓ pass
LT@HH Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles	9	-109 / ≈-111	Under	53.3%	50.2%	+3.1	Pass	Lost ✗ pass

Rule record from 10/06 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

KBO Team Totals

Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+.

+11.24u

6-1 · 1u / 2u / 3u rule · 14u risked

Game	Team	Total	Over / Under	Lean	Model	Book	Gap	Units	Result
DOO@SSG Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	DOO	4.5	-134 / ≈+110	Over	50.1%	54.6%	-4.5	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
DOO@SSG Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	SSG	3.5	-126 / ≈+104	Over	53.7%	53.2%	+0.5	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
KIA@SS KIA Tigers at Samsung Lions	KIA	5.5	-117 / ≈-104	Under	61.9%	48.6%	+13.3	3u	Won ✓ +2.88u
KIA@SS KIA Tigers at Samsung Lions	SS	4.5	-115 / ≈-105	Under	53.8%	48.9%	+4.9	1u	Lost ✗ -1.00u
KIW@LG Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins	KIW	3.5	+111 / ≈-135	Under	50.3%	54.8%	-4.5	Pass	Won ✓ pass
KIW@LG Kiwoom Heroes at LG Twins	LG	6.5	-101 / ≈-120	Under	67.3%	52.0%	+15.3	3u	Won ✓ +2.50u
KT@NC KT Wiz at NC Dinos	KT	5.5	+107 / ≈-130	Over	52.6%	46.1%	+6.6	2u	Won ✓ +2.14u
KT@NC KT Wiz at NC Dinos	NC	4.5	+103 / ≈-125	Under	59.6%	53.0%	+6.6	2u	Won ✓ +1.60u
LT@HH Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles	LT	3.5	-107 / ≈-113	Over	53.7%	49.4%	+4.4	1u	Won ✓ +0.93u
LT@HH Lotte Giants at Hanwha Eagles	HH	4.5	-132 / ≈+109	Under	52.2%	45.7%	+6.5	2u	Won ✓ +2.18u

Rule record from 10/03 on: 21-10 · +10.11u on 51u · +19.8% ROI

Model's pick wonLost

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's gap rule (passes left out). ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.

+2.68u

24-15 · last 40 · 68u risked

Date	Game	Market	Lean	Price	Model	Result	Stake	Units won
10/07	SS @ KT	Moneyline	SS	-109	55.8%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/07	NC @ SSG	Moneyline	SSG	-170	68.0%	Win	2u	+1.18
10/07	NC @ SSG	Team total	NC Under 4.5	≈-135	57.8%	Win	1u	+0.74
10/07	NC @ SSG	Team total	SSG Over 4.5	-111	61.9%	Win	3u	+2.70
10/07	HH @ KIW	Moneyline	HH	-173	66.6%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/07	HH @ KIW	Team total	HH Over 4.5	-120	55.5%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/07	DOO @ LG	Moneyline	LG	-126	59.5%	Win	2u	+1.59
10/07	DOO @ LG	Team total	DOO Under 3.5	≈+103	50.7%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/07	DOO @ LG	Team total	LG Over 3.5	-119	61.2%	Win	2u	+1.68
10/06	SS @ KIA	Team total	SS Over 4.5	-107	54.2%	Win	1u	+0.93
10/06	SS @ KIA	Team total	KIA Under 5.5	≈-114	54.0%	Win	1u	+0.88
10/06	NC @ LG	Moneyline	LG	-181	66.9%	Win	2u	+1.10
10/06	NC @ LG	Team total	LG Over 5.5	+101	50.7%	Win	1u	+1.01
10/06	KT @ KIW	Moneyline	KT	-261	72.6%	Win	1u	+0.38
10/06	KT @ KIW	Team total	KT Over 4.5	-127	57.1%	Win	1u	+0.79
10/06	DOO @ LT	Team total	DOO Under 5.5	≈-125	57.9%	Win	1u	+0.80
10/06	DOO @ LT	Team total	LT Under 3.5	≈-106	53.4%	Win	1u	+0.94
10/05	SSG @ NC	Moneyline	SSG	-173	64.0%	Win	1u	+0.58
10/05	SSG @ NC	Team total	SSG Over 4.5	-130	57.4%	Win	1u	+0.77
10/05	LT @ KT	Total	Over 9	-112	61.3%	Push	2u	+0.00
10/05	LT @ KT	Team total	LT Under 4.5	≈-137	59.1%	Win	1u	+0.73
10/05	LT @ KT	Team total	KT Over 4.5	-110	55.1%	Win	1u	+0.91
10/05	KIW @ HH	Team total	KIW Over 4.5	-110	56.5%	Win	2u	+1.82
10/05	KIA @ LG	Moneyline	LG	-103	58.3%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/05	KIA @ LG	Team total	KIA Under 4.5	≈-136	61.2%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/05	KIA @ LG	Team total	LG Over 3.5	-111	61.6%	Win	3u	+2.70
10/05	DOO @ SS	Team total	DOO Under 4.5	≈-130	58.9%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/04	SSG @ NC	Team total	NC Over 4.5	-110	59.5%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/04	LT @ KT	Team total	KT Under 5.5	≈-125	64.7%	Win	3u	+2.40
10/04	KIW @ HH	Moneyline	KIW	-129	59.3%	Win	2u	+1.55
10/04	KIW @ HH	Team total	KIW Over 4.5	-135	61.1%	Win	2u	+1.48
10/04	KIW @ HH	Team total	HH Over 4.5	+103	55.6%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/04	KIA @ LG	Moneyline	KIA	+107	50.3%	Win	2u	+2.14
10/04	KIA @ LG	Team total	KIA Under 4.5	≈+103	52.2%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/04	DOO @ SS	Total	Under 9.5	≈-126	67.7%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/04	DOO @ SS	Team total	DOO Under 4.5	≈-129	67.5%	Loss	3u	-3.00
10/04	DOO @ SS	Team total	SS Under 4.5	≈-115	54.1%	Win	1u	+0.87
10/03	SSG @ NC	Moneyline	SSG	+137	55.4%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/03	SSG @ NC	Team total	SSG Over 3.5	-131	62.4%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/03	SSG @ NC	Team total	NC Under 4.5	≈+113	59.1%	Loss	3u	-3.00