KBO · SportsGap

HH@LT

Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants

MLHH+10955.0%+9.52u✓+2.18u

TotalU 10.5≈+10553.0%+6.4Pass✗

TTHH O 4.5-13763.4%+8.32u✓+1.46u

TTLT U 5.5≈-10653.4%+4.31u✗-1.00u

NC@WO

NC Dinos at Kiwoom Heroes

MLNC-17565.9%+5.22u✓+1.14u

TotalO 8.5-14459.0%+2.7Pass✗

TTNC O 4.5-12757.0%+3.51u✗-1.00u

TTWO U 3.5≈-11651.6%+0.5Pass✓

SS@LG

Samsung Lions at LG Twins

MLLG-16264.1%+5.12u✗-2.00u

TotalU 10≈-11765.8%+14.22u✓+1.71u

TTSS U 4.5≈-12764.1%+10.73u✓+2.36u

TTLG U 5.5≈-13460.9%+6.32u✓+1.49u

TTLG O 4.5-13455.5%+0.9Pass✗

OB@SK

Doosan Bears at SSG Landers

MLOB-12753.7%+0.3Pass✗

TotalU 10.5≈-11866.1%+14.42u✓+1.69u

TTOB U 5.5≈-12960.7%+7.02u✓+1.55u

TTSK U 4.5≈-11454.1%+3.31u✓+0.88u

KT@HT

KT Wiz at KIA Tigers

MLKT-12953.9%+0.2Pass✗

TotalU 9.5≈-10750.9%+1.5Pass✓

TTKT U 4.5≈+10950.5%+4.91u✓+1.09u

TTHT U 4.5≈-13156.9%+2.8Pass✗

How units are set

Moneyline: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+
Totals: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap
Team totals: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+

How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Each market stakes by the gap between the model and the book's no-vig price: moneylines pass under 3 points, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+; totals bet the over at an 8+ point gap and the under only when the model gives it 60%+ with a 3+ point gap, 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap; team totals pass under 3, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+. Since mid-July the KBO model has been more accurate than the book on moneylines and team totals. On totals only the biggest gaps have won, on a small sample. Late in the season, when exactly one team has nothing left to play for (eliminated, or its final standing is clinched), the moneyline moves 5 points of win probability from that team to the other side: such teams may rest regulars, and the raw model rates them too high. When the moneyline gap is 20 points or more, the whole game is a pass (moneyline, total and team totals): a gap that big usually means the book knows something the model doesn't.

KBO Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+.

+1.32u

2-1 · 1u / 2u rule · 6u risked

Game	Away / Home	Model pick	Model	Book	Gap	Units	Result
HH@LT Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants	+109 / -133	HH	55.0%	45.6%	+9.5	2u	Won ✓ +2.18u
NC@WO NC Dinos at Kiwoom Heroes	-175 / +143	NC	65.9%	60.7%	+5.2	2u	Won ✓ +1.14u
SS@LG Samsung Lions at LG Twins	+133 / -162	LG	64.1%	59.0%	+5.1	2u	Lost ✗ -2.00u
OB@SK Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	-127 / +105	OB	53.7%	53.4%	+0.3	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers	-129 / +106	KT	53.9%	53.7%	+0.2	Pass	Lost ✗ pass

Rule record from 10/05 on: 5-3 · -1.17u on 14u · -8.4% ROI

KBO Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price. Units: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap.

+3.40u

2-0 · 1u / 2u · over 8+ / under 60%+ rule · 4u risked

Game	Total	Over / Under	Lean	Model	Book	Gap	Units	Result
OB@SK Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	10.5	-103 / ≈-118	Under	66.1%	51.6%	+14.4	2u	Won ✓ +1.69u
SS@LG Samsung Lions at LG Twins	10	-103 / ≈-117	Under	65.8%	51.5%	+14.2	2u	Won ✓ +1.71u
HH@LT Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants	10.5	-127 / ≈+105	Under	53.0%	46.6%	+6.4	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
NC@WO NC Dinos at Kiwoom Heroes	8.5	-144 / ≈+118	Over	59.0%	56.3%	+2.7	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers	9.5	-113 / ≈-107	Under	50.9%	49.4%	+1.5	Pass	Won ✓ pass

Rule record from 10/06 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

KBO Team Totals

Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+.

+6.83u

6-2 · 1u / 2u / 3u rule · 13u risked

Game	Team	Total	Over / Under	Lean	Model	Book	Gap	Units	Result
HH@LT Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants	HH	4.5	-137 / ≈+113	Over	63.4%	55.2%	+8.3	2u	Won ✓ +1.46u
HH@LT Hanwha Eagles at Lotte Giants	LT	5.5	-114 / ≈-106	Under	53.4%	49.1%	+4.3	1u	Lost ✗ -1.00u
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers	KT	4.5	-133 / ≈+109	Under	50.5%	45.6%	+4.9	1u	Won ✓ +1.09u
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers	HT	4.5	+108 / ≈-131	Under	56.9%	54.1%	+2.8	Pass	Lost ✗ pass
NC@WO NC Dinos at Kiwoom Heroes	NC	4.5	-127 / ≈+105	Over	57.0%	53.4%	+3.5	1u	Lost ✗ -1.00u
NC@WO NC Dinos at Kiwoom Heroes	WO	3.5	-105 / ≈-116	Under	51.6%	51.2%	+0.5	Pass	Won ✓ pass
OB@SK Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	OB	5.5	+106 / ≈-129	Under	60.7%	53.7%	+7.0	2u	Won ✓ +1.55u
OB@SK Doosan Bears at SSG Landers	SK	4.5	-106 / ≈-114	Under	54.1%	50.9%	+3.3	1u	Won ✓ +0.88u
SS@LG Samsung Lions at LG Twins	SS	4.5	+105 / ≈-127	Under	64.1%	53.4%	+10.7	3u	Won ✓ +2.36u
SS@LG Samsung Lions at LG Twins	LG	5.5	+110 / ≈-134	Under	60.9%	54.6%	+6.3	2u	Won ✓ +1.49u
SS@LG Samsung Lions at LG Twins	LG	4.5	-134 / ≈+110	Over	55.5%	54.6%	+0.9	Pass	Lost ✗ pass

Rule record from 10/03 on: 21-10 · +10.11u on 51u · +19.8% ROI

Model's pick wonLost

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's gap rule (passes left out). ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.

+12.21u

26-13 · last 40 · 67u risked

Date	Game	Market	Lean	Price	Model	Result	Stake	Units won
10/07	SS @ KT	Moneyline	SS	-109	55.8%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/07	OB @ LG	Moneyline	LG	-126	59.5%	Win	2u	+1.59
10/07	OB @ LG	Team total	OB Under 3.5	≈+103	50.7%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/07	OB @ LG	Team total	LG Over 3.5	-119	61.2%	Win	2u	+1.68
10/07	NC @ SK	Moneyline	SK	-170	68.0%	Win	2u	+1.18
10/07	NC @ SK	Team total	NC Under 4.5	≈-135	57.8%	Win	1u	+0.74
10/07	NC @ SK	Team total	SK Over 4.5	-111	61.9%	Win	3u	+2.70
10/07	HH @ WO	Moneyline	HH	-173	66.6%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/07	HH @ WO	Team total	HH Over 4.5	-120	55.5%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/06	SS @ HT	Team total	SS Over 4.5	-107	54.2%	Win	1u	+0.93
10/06	SS @ HT	Team total	HT Under 5.5	≈-114	54.0%	Win	1u	+0.88
10/06	OB @ LT	Team total	OB Under 5.5	≈-125	57.9%	Win	1u	+0.80
10/06	OB @ LT	Team total	LT Under 3.5	≈-106	53.4%	Win	1u	+0.94
10/06	NC @ LG	Moneyline	LG	-181	66.9%	Win	2u	+1.10
10/06	NC @ LG	Team total	LG Over 5.5	+101	50.7%	Win	1u	+1.01
10/06	KT @ WO	Moneyline	KT	-261	72.6%	Win	1u	+0.38
10/06	KT @ WO	Team total	KT Over 4.5	-127	57.1%	Win	1u	+0.79
10/05	WO @ HH	Team total	WO Over 4.5	-110	56.5%	Win	2u	+1.82
10/05	SK @ NC	Moneyline	SK	-173	64.0%	Win	1u	+0.58
10/05	SK @ NC	Team total	SK Over 4.5	-130	57.4%	Win	1u	+0.77
10/05	OB @ SS	Team total	OB Under 4.5	≈-130	58.9%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/05	LT @ KT	Total	Over 9	-112	61.3%	Push	2u	+0.00
10/05	LT @ KT	Team total	LT Under 4.5	≈-137	59.1%	Win	1u	+0.73
10/05	LT @ KT	Team total	KT Over 4.5	-110	55.1%	Win	1u	+0.91
10/05	HT @ LG	Moneyline	LG	-103	58.3%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/05	HT @ LG	Team total	HT Under 4.5	≈-136	61.2%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/05	HT @ LG	Team total	LG Over 3.5	-111	61.6%	Win	3u	+2.70
10/04	WO @ HH	Moneyline	WO	-129	59.3%	Win	2u	+1.55
10/04	WO @ HH	Team total	WO Over 4.5	-135	61.1%	Win	2u	+1.48
10/04	WO @ HH	Team total	HH Over 4.5	+103	55.6%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/04	SK @ NC	Team total	NC Over 4.5	-110	59.5%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/04	OB @ SS	Total	Under 9.5	≈-126	67.7%	Loss	2u	-2.00
10/04	OB @ SS	Team total	OB Under 4.5	≈-129	67.5%	Loss	3u	-3.00
10/04	OB @ SS	Team total	SS Under 4.5	≈-115	54.1%	Win	1u	+0.87
10/04	LT @ KT	Team total	KT Under 5.5	≈-125	64.7%	Win	3u	+2.40
10/04	HT @ LG	Moneyline	HT	+107	50.3%	Win	2u	+2.14
10/04	HT @ LG	Team total	HT Under 4.5	≈+103	52.2%	Loss	1u	-1.00
10/03	WO @ HH	Moneyline	WO	+133	53.0%	Win	2u	+2.66
10/03	WO @ HH	Team total	WO Over 4.5	-107	59.2%	Win	2u	+1.87
10/03	SK @ NC	Moneyline	SK	+137	55.4%	Loss	2u	-2.00