How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
How the units work. Each market stakes by the gap between the model and the book's no-vig price: moneylines pass under 3 points, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+; totals bet the over at an 8+ point gap and the under only when the model gives it 60%+ with a 3+ point gap, 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap; team totals pass under 3, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+. Since mid-July the KBO model has been more accurate than the book on moneylines and team totals. On totals only the biggest gaps have won, on a small sample. Late in the season, when exactly one team has nothing left to play for (eliminated, or its final standing is clinched), the moneyline moves 5 points of win probability from that team to the other side: such teams may rest regulars, and the raw model rates them too high. When the moneyline gap is 20 points or more, the whole game is a pass (moneyline, total and team totals): a gap that big usually means the book knows something the model doesn't.
KBO Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-4, 2u at 4+.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LG@SK LG Twins at SSG Landers | -171 / +140 | SK | 50.4% | 39.8% | +10.6 | 2u | Won ✓ +2.80u |
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers | -136 / +112 | KT | 50.2% | 55.0% | -4.8 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
HH@SS Hanwha Eagles at Samsung Lions | +187 / -235 | SS | 61.2% | 66.8% | -5.6 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
NC@OB NC Dinos at Doosan Bears | +153 / -189 | OB | 53.0% | 62.3% | -9.3 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 3-1 · +0.07u on 6u · +1.1% ROI
KBO Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price. Units: over: pass under an 8-point gap; under: only when the model gives the under 60%+ with a 3+ point gap; 1u, 2u at a 10+ point gap.
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
NC@OB NC Dinos at Doosan Bears | 8 | +101 / ≈-122 | Over | 66.6% | 47.5% | +19.1 | 2u | Won ✓ +2.02u |
HH@SS Hanwha Eagles at Samsung Lions | 11.5 | -108 / ≈-112 | Under | 58.6% | 50.4% | +8.2 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
LG@SK LG Twins at SSG Landers | 10 | -108 / ≈-112 | Under | 54.6% | 50.4% | +4.2 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers | 9 | -108 / ≈-112 | Over | 52.7% | 49.6% | +3.1 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
Rule record from 10/06 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
KBO Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under a 3-point gap, 1u at 3-6, 2u at 6-10, 3u at 10+.
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HH@SS Hanwha Eagles at Samsung Lions | HH | 4.5 | -105 / ≈-116 | Over | 51.9% | 48.8% | +3.1 | 1u | Lost ✗ -1.00u |
HH@SS Hanwha Eagles at Samsung Lions | SS | 6.5 | -122 / ≈-100 | Under | 63.9% | 47.6% | +16.3 | 3u | Won ✓ +3.00u |
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers | KT | 4.5 | -109 / ≈-111 | Under | 51.1% | 50.2% | +0.9 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
KT@HT KT Wiz at KIA Tigers | HT | 3.5 | -129 / ≈+106 | Over | 60.2% | 53.7% | +6.5 | 2u | Won ✓ +1.55u |
LG@SK LG Twins at SSG Landers | LG | 5.5 | -107 / ≈-113 | Under | 59.1% | 50.6% | +8.4 | 2u | Won ✓ +1.77u |
LG@SK LG Twins at SSG Landers | SK | 3.5 | -134 / ≈+110 | Over | 65.4% | 54.6% | +10.8 | 3u | Won ✓ +2.24u |
NC@OB NC Dinos at Doosan Bears | NC | 3.5 | +109 / ≈-132 | Over | 56.5% | 45.7% | +10.9 | 3u | Won ✓ +3.27u |
NC@OB NC Dinos at Doosan Bears | NC | 2.5 | -148 / ≈+121 | Over | 70.1% | 56.9% | +13.2 | 3u | Won ✓ +2.03u |
NC@OB NC Dinos at Doosan Bears | OB | 3.5 | -141 / ≈+116 | Over | 59.9% | 55.8% | +4.0 | 1u | Won ✓ +0.71u |
NC@OB NC Dinos at Doosan Bears | OB | 4.5 | +108 / ≈-131 | Over | 50.4% | 45.9% | +4.5 | 1u | Won ✓ +1.08u |
Rule record from 10/03 on: 18-8 · +6.99u on 43u · +16.2% ROI
Recent results
Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's gap rule (passes left out). ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.
| Date | Game | Market | Lean | Price | Model | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/06 | SS @ HT | Team total | SS Over 4.5 | -107 | 54.2% | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 10/06 | SS @ HT | Team total | HT Under 5.5 | ≈-114 | 54.0% | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 10/06 | OB @ LT | Team total | OB Under 5.5 | ≈-125 | 57.9% | Win | 1u | +0.80 |
| 10/06 | OB @ LT | Team total | LT Under 3.5 | ≈-106 | 53.4% | Win | 1u | +0.94 |
| 10/06 | NC @ LG | Moneyline | LG | -181 | 66.9% | Win | 2u | +1.10 |
| 10/06 | NC @ LG | Team total | LG Over 5.5 | +101 | 50.7% | Win | 1u | +1.01 |
| 10/06 | KT @ WO | Moneyline | KT | -261 | 72.6% | Win | 1u | +0.38 |
| 10/06 | KT @ WO | Team total | KT Over 4.5 | -127 | 57.1% | Win | 1u | +0.79 |
| 10/05 | WO @ HH | Team total | WO Over 4.5 | -110 | 56.5% | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 10/05 | SK @ NC | Moneyline | SK | -173 | 64.0% | Win | 1u | +0.58 |
| 10/05 | SK @ NC | Team total | SK Over 4.5 | -130 | 57.4% | Win | 1u | +0.77 |
| 10/05 | OB @ SS | Team total | OB Under 4.5 | ≈-130 | 58.9% | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/05 | LT @ KT | Total | Over 9 | -112 | 61.3% | Push | 2u | +0.00 |
| 10/05 | LT @ KT | Team total | LT Under 4.5 | ≈-137 | 59.1% | Win | 1u | +0.73 |
| 10/05 | LT @ KT | Team total | KT Over 4.5 | -110 | 55.1% | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 10/05 | HT @ LG | Moneyline | LG | -103 | 58.3% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/05 | HT @ LG | Team total | HT Under 4.5 | ≈-136 | 61.2% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/05 | HT @ LG | Team total | LG Over 3.5 | -111 | 61.6% | Win | 3u | +2.70 |
| 10/04 | WO @ HH | Moneyline | WO | -129 | 59.3% | Win | 2u | +1.55 |
| 10/04 | WO @ HH | Team total | WO Over 4.5 | -135 | 61.1% | Win | 2u | +1.48 |
| 10/04 | WO @ HH | Team total | HH Over 4.5 | +103 | 55.6% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | SK @ NC | Team total | NC Over 4.5 | -110 | 59.5% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | OB @ SS | Total | Under 9.5 | ≈-126 | 67.7% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | OB @ SS | Team total | OB Under 4.5 | ≈-129 | 67.5% | Loss | 3u | -3.00 |
| 10/04 | OB @ SS | Team total | SS Under 4.5 | ≈-115 | 54.1% | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 10/04 | LT @ KT | Team total | KT Under 5.5 | ≈-125 | 64.7% | Win | 3u | +2.40 |
| 10/04 | HT @ LG | Moneyline | HT | +107 | 50.3% | Win | 2u | +2.14 |
| 10/04 | HT @ LG | Team total | HT Under 4.5 | ≈+103 | 52.2% | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/03 | WO @ HH | Moneyline | WO | +133 | 53.0% | Win | 2u | +2.66 |
| 10/03 | WO @ HH | Team total | WO Over 4.5 | -107 | 59.2% | Win | 2u | +1.87 |
| 10/03 | SK @ NC | Moneyline | SK | +137 | 55.4% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | SK @ NC | Team total | SK Over 3.5 | -131 | 62.4% | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/03 | SK @ NC | Team total | NC Under 4.5 | ≈+113 | 59.1% | Loss | 3u | -3.00 |
| 10/03 | OB @ SS | Moneyline | SS | -163 | 65.1% | Win | 2u | +1.23 |
| 10/03 | OB @ SS | Team total | OB Under 5.5 | ≈-134 | 68.0% | Win | 3u | +2.24 |
| 10/03 | OB @ SS | Team total | SS Under 6.5 | ≈-129 | 59.0% | Win | 1u | +0.78 |
| 10/03 | LT @ KT | Team total | LT Under 3.5 | ≈+107 | 50.4% | Win | 1u | +1.07 |
| 10/01 | NC @ OB | Total | Over 8 | +101 | 66.6% | Win | 2u | +2.02 |
| 10/01 | NC @ OB | Team total | NC Over 3.5 | +109 | 56.5% | Win | 3u | +3.27 |
| 10/01 | NC @ OB | Team total | NC Over 2.5 | -148 | 70.1% | Win | 3u | +2.03 |