ORIX@Lotte
MLLotte-11863.7%+11.1✗
TotalU 9≈-11573.1%+21.6✓
TotalU 8≈+10153.9%+6.1–
TTORIX U 3.5≈+10753.4%+7.3✗
TTORIX U 4.5≈-13370.9%+16.5✗
TTLotte O 3.5-13357.8%+3.4✗
TTLotte U 4.5≈-13965.8%+10.3✓
SoftBank@Seibu
MLSoftBank-15557.0%-1.9✓
TotalU 7.5≈-10954.9%+4.6✓
TTSoftBank U 4.5≈-13558.2%+3.4✗
TTSoftBank U 3.5≈+11057.2%+11.8✗
TTSeibu U 3.5≈-13771.5%+16.3✓
TTSeibu O 2.5-14357.2%+1.1✗
Yakult@Giants
MLGiants-16356.7%-3.4✗
TotalU 6.5≈-11755.0%+3.1✓
TTYakult U 2.5≈-11154.0%+3.8✓
TTGiants U 3.5≈-14351.9%-4.2✓
Chunichi@Hanshin
MLHanshin-16354.4%-5.7✗
TotalU 6≈-11255.7%+4.8✓
TTChunichi O 2.5+10451.6%+4.8✓
TTHanshin U 3.5≈-14762.3%+5.6✓
Hiroshima@DeNA
MLDeNA-21356.0%-9.9✓
TotalU 8≈-13562.5%+7.2✓
TTHiroshima O 2.5-12656.5%+3.3✗
TTDeNA U 4.5≈-13060.6%+6.7✓
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham
MLNippon-Ham-26555.0%-15.2✓
TotalU 8.5≈-10659.9%+10.3✓
TTRakuten U 3.5≈-14965.3%+8.3✓
TTRakuten U 2.5≈+11952.6%+9.1✓
TTNippon-Ham U 5.5≈-13067.5%+13.6✓
How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Research only: no units. Since mid-July the book's prices have been more accurate than the NPB model in every market. The totals model was updated on Oct 5, 2026; its leans are shown and graded here, but nothing is staked until it has a record of its own.
NPB Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points.
3-3 · model leans
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | +105 / -118 | Lotte | 63.7% | 52.6% | +11.1 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@Seibu SoftBank at Seibu | -155 / +136 | SoftBank | 57.0% | 58.9% | -1.9 | Won ✓ |
Yakult@Giants Yakult at Giants | +143 / -163 | Giants | 56.7% | 60.1% | -3.4 | Lost ✗ |
Chunichi@Hanshin Chunichi at Hanshin | +143 / -163 | Hanshin | 54.4% | 60.1% | -5.7 | Lost ✗ |
Hiroshima@DeNA Hiroshima at DeNA | +184 / -213 | DeNA | 56.0% | 65.9% | -9.9 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | +224 / -265 | Nippon-Ham | 55.0% | 70.2% | -15.2 | Won ✓ |
NPB Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.
6-0 · model leans
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | 9 | -101 / ≈-115 | Under | 73.1% | 51.6% | +21.6 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | 8.5 | -110 / ≈-106 | Under | 59.9% | 49.6% | +10.3 | Won ✓ |
Hiroshima@DeNA Hiroshima at DeNA | 8 | +116 / ≈-135 | Under | 62.5% | 55.4% | +7.2 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | 8 | -118 / ≈+101 | Under | 53.9% | 47.9% | +6.1 | Push – |
Chunichi@Hanshin Chunichi at Hanshin | 6 | -104 / ≈-112 | Under | 55.7% | 50.9% | +4.8 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Seibu SoftBank at Seibu | 7.5 | -107 / ≈-109 | Under | 54.9% | 50.2% | +4.6 | Won ✓ |
Yakult@Giants Yakult at Giants | 6.5 | +100 / ≈-117 | Under | 55.0% | 51.9% | +3.1 | Won ✓ |
NPB Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price.
10-7 · model leans
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chunichi@Hanshin Chunichi at Hanshin | Chunichi | 2.5 | +104 / ≈-126 | Over | 51.6% | 46.8% | +4.8 | Won ✓ |
Chunichi@Hanshin Chunichi at Hanshin | Hanshin | 3.5 | +120 / ≈-147 | Under | 62.3% | 56.7% | +5.6 | Won ✓ |
Hiroshima@DeNA Hiroshima at DeNA | Hiroshima | 2.5 | -126 / ≈+104 | Over | 56.5% | 53.2% | +3.3 | Lost ✗ |
Hiroshima@DeNA Hiroshima at DeNA | DeNA | 4.5 | +107 / ≈-130 | Under | 60.6% | 53.9% | +6.7 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | ORIX | 3.5 | -130 / ≈+107 | Under | 53.4% | 46.1% | +7.3 | Lost ✗ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | ORIX | 4.5 | +109 / ≈-133 | Under | 70.9% | 54.4% | +16.5 | Lost ✗ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | Lotte | 3.5 | -133 / ≈+109 | Over | 57.8% | 54.4% | +3.4 | Lost ✗ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | Lotte | 4.5 | +114 / ≈-139 | Under | 65.8% | 55.5% | +10.3 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | Rakuten | 3.5 | +122 / ≈-149 | Under | 65.3% | 57.0% | +8.3 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | Rakuten | 2.5 | -145 / ≈+119 | Under | 52.6% | 43.5% | +9.1 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | Nippon-Ham | 5.5 | +107 / ≈-130 | Under | 67.5% | 53.9% | +13.6 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Seibu SoftBank at Seibu | SoftBank | 4.5 | +111 / ≈-135 | Under | 58.2% | 54.8% | +3.4 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@Seibu SoftBank at Seibu | SoftBank | 3.5 | -134 / ≈+110 | Under | 57.2% | 45.4% | +11.8 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@Seibu SoftBank at Seibu | Seibu | 3.5 | +113 / ≈-137 | Under | 71.5% | 55.2% | +16.3 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Seibu SoftBank at Seibu | Seibu | 2.5 | -143 / ≈+117 | Over | 57.2% | 56.1% | +1.1 | Lost ✗ |
Yakult@Giants Yakult at Giants | Yakult | 2.5 | -109 / ≈-111 | Under | 54.0% | 50.2% | +3.8 | Won ✓ |
Yakult@Giants Yakult at Giants | Giants | 3.5 | +117 / ≈-143 | Under | 51.9% | 56.1% | -4.2 | Won ✓ |
Model's pick wonLost