How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Mostly research only. Since mid-July the book's prices have been more accurate than the NPB model in every market, so moneylines and team totals carry no units. Game totals get 1 unit only when the gap is 15 points or more, as an unproven live test: those few picks have won so far, but on a small sample, and gaps of 10-15 points have lost. When the moneyline gap is 20 points or more, the whole game is a pass.
NPB Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Seibu@SoftBank Seibu at SoftBank | +160 / -182 | SoftBank | 69.5% | 62.7% | +6.8 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | +116 / -131 | Nippon-Ham | 61.8% | 55.0% | +6.8 | Lost ✗ |
Giants@Hiroshima Giants at Hiroshima | -127 / +113 | Giants | 55.5% | 54.4% | +1.1 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | +114 / -128 | Lotte | 52.1% | 54.6% | -2.4 | Lost ✗ |
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | +149 / -170 | DeNA | 58.0% | 61.1% | -3.1 | Won ✓ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | -279 / +235 | Hanshin | 57.4% | 71.2% | -13.7 | Won ✓ |
NPB Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price. Units: pass under a 15-point gap, 1u at 15+ (unproven live test).
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | 8.5 | +119 / ≈-139 | Under | 71.5% | 56.0% | +15.5 | 1u | Won ✓ +0.72u |
Seibu@SoftBank Seibu at SoftBank | 7 | -104 / ≈-112 | Under | 60.5% | 50.9% | +9.6 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | 7 | -119 / ≈+102 | Over | 56.0% | 52.3% | +3.7 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
Giants@Hiroshima Giants at Hiroshima | 7 | +118 / ≈-138 | Under | 59.4% | 55.8% | +3.6 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | 7.5 | +100 / ≈-117 | Under | 53.2% | 51.9% | +1.3 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | 8.5 | +123 / ≈-145 | Under | 57.9% | 56.9% | +1.0 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
NPB Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price.
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | Chunichi | 3.5 | +105 / ≈-128 | Under | 57.1% | 53.5% | +3.6 | Won ✓ |
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | DeNA | 4.5 | +114 / ≈-138 | Under | 59.8% | 55.4% | +4.4 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hiroshima Giants at Hiroshima | Giants | 3.5 | +107 / ≈-129 | Under | 55.6% | 53.8% | +1.8 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hiroshima Giants at Hiroshima | Hiroshima | 2.5 | -126 / ≈+104 | Over | 52.9% | 53.2% | -0.4 | Lost ✗ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | Hanshin | 4.5 | -115 / ≈-105 | Under | 63.7% | 48.9% | +14.8 | Lost ✗ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | Yakult | 2.5 | +122 / ≈-149 | Over | 50.8% | 43.0% | +7.9 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | ORIX | 3.5 | +108 / ≈-131 | Over | 51.6% | 45.9% | +5.7 | Lost ✗ |
ORIX@Lotte ORIX at Lotte | Lotte | 3.5 | -105 / ≈-115 | Under | 52.2% | 51.1% | +1.1 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | Rakuten | 3.5 | -103 / ≈-117 | Under | 66.7% | 51.5% | +15.2 | Lost ✗ |
Rakuten@Nippon-Ham Rakuten at Nippon-Ham | Nippon-Ham | 3.5 | -127 / ≈+105 | Under | 51.5% | 46.6% | +4.9 | Won ✓ |
Seibu@SoftBank Seibu at SoftBank | Seibu | 2.5 | -119 / ≈-102 | Under | 53.5% | 48.2% | +5.4 | Lost ✗ |
Seibu@SoftBank Seibu at SoftBank | SoftBank | 3.5 | -122 / ≈+101 | Under | 50.2% | 47.5% | +2.7 | Lost ✗ |