How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Mostly research only. Since mid-July the book's prices have been more accurate than the NPB model in every market, so moneylines and team totals carry no units. Game totals get 1 unit only when the gap is 15 points or more, as an unproven live test: those few picks have won so far, but on a small sample, and gaps of 10-15 points have lost. When the moneyline gap is 20 points or more, the whole game is a pass.
NPB Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chunichi@Hiroshima Chunichi at Hiroshima | -110 / -102 | Hiroshima | 54.6% | 49.1% | +5.6 | Won ✓ |
Nippon-Ham@Lotte Nippon-Ham at Lotte | -164 / +144 | Nippon-Ham | 63.9% | 60.2% | +3.7 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Rakuten SoftBank at Rakuten | -224 / +193 | SoftBank | 64.9% | 67.0% | -2.0 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | +159 / -182 | Hanshin | 52.4% | 62.6% | -10.1 | Push – |
NPB Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price. Units: pass under a 15-point gap, 1u at 15+ (unproven live test).
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SoftBank@Rakuten SoftBank at Rakuten | 7.5 | +102 / ≈-119 | Under | 62.1% | 52.3% | +9.8 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
Nippon-Ham@Lotte Nippon-Ham at Lotte | 6 | -126 / ≈+107 | Over | 61.0% | 53.6% | +7.4 | Pass | Lost ✗ pass |
Chunichi@Hiroshima Chunichi at Hiroshima | 7 | +107 / ≈-125 | Under | 58.6% | 53.5% | +5.1 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | 5.5 | +103 / ≈-121 | Under | 56.6% | 52.6% | +3.9 | Pass | Won ✓ pass |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
NPB Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price.
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chunichi@Hiroshima Chunichi at Hiroshima | Chunichi | 3.5 | +107 / ≈-130 | Under | 62.0% | 53.9% | +8.1 | Won ✓ |
Chunichi@Hiroshima Chunichi at Hiroshima | Hiroshima | 3.5 | +121 / ≈-148 | Under | 56.6% | 56.9% | -0.3 | Lost ✗ |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | Giants | 2.5 | +123 / ≈-151 | Under | 59.3% | 57.3% | +2.0 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | Hanshin | 2.5 | -135 / ≈+111 | Under | 56.5% | 45.2% | +11.3 | Won ✓ |
Nippon-Ham@Lotte Nippon-Ham at Lotte | Nippon-Ham | 3.5 | -113 / ≈-107 | Over | 56.8% | 50.6% | +6.2 | Lost ✗ |
Nippon-Ham@Lotte Nippon-Ham at Lotte | Lotte | 2.5 | +102 / ≈-124 | Over | 50.8% | 47.2% | +3.6 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@Rakuten SoftBank at Rakuten | SoftBank | 4.5 | -113 / ≈-107 | Under | 56.9% | 49.4% | +7.6 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@Rakuten SoftBank at Rakuten | Rakuten | 2.5 | +104 / ≈-126 | Under | 56.0% | 53.2% | +2.7 | Won ✓ |