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+1.50uFinal
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4 games
WNBA · units by market rule
Moneyline · 1-3u ladder
48-7
+21.1% ROI · +22.8u on 108u
Totals · 1u / 2u
84-66
+7.2% ROI · +20.0u on 278u
Team totals · 1u at 8+ pts
108-77
+9.9% ROI · +18.2u on 185u
IND@MIN
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
100-108
MLMIN-22572.7%+6.31u✓+0.44u
TotalU 193.5-11559.5%+8.42u✗-2.00u
TTIND U 93.5-12054.7%+4.7Pass✗
TTMIN U 99.5-12066.3%+16.31u✗-1.00u
LAS@PDX
Los Angeles Sparks at Portland Fire
106-101
MLPDX+10062.1%+14.3Pass✗
TotalO 184.5-11074.7%+24.72u✓+1.82u
TTLAS O 93-11665.3%+14.51u✓+0.86u
TTPDX O 93.5-11570.6%+20.01u✓+0.87u
CON@DAL
Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings
63-83
MLDAL-60087.0%+4.53u✓+0.50u
TotalO 171.5-10580.3%+31.42u✗-2.00u
TTCON O 79.5-11680.2%+29.51u✗-1.00u
TTDAL O 92-11066.6%+17.11u✗-1.00u
TOR@GSV
Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries
79-96
MLGSV-85085.0%-0.73u✓+0.35u
TotalO 165.5-10571.3%+22.42u✓+1.90u
TTTOR O 76-11969.3%+17.81u✓+0.84u
TTGSV O 89.5-11067.3%+17.71u✓+0.91u
How units are set
  • Moneyline: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
  • Totals: pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.
  • Team totals: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Totals: pass when the book rates our pick higher than the model does, 1 unit at a 0-3 point gap, 2 at 3+. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.

WNBA Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.

+1.30u
3-0 · 1-3u ladder · 7u risked
GameAway / HomeModel pickModelBookGapUnitsFinal
LAS@PDX
Los Angeles Sparks at Portland Fire
-120 / +100PDX
62.1%
47.8%+14.3Pass106-101 ✗
IND@MIN
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
+185 / -225MIN
72.7%
66.4%+6.31u100-108 ✓
+0.44u
CON@DAL
Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings
+450 / -600DAL
87.0%
82.5%+4.53u63-83 ✓
+0.50u
TOR@GSV
Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries
+575 / -850GSV
85.0%
85.8%-0.73u79-96 ✓
+0.35u

Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-0 · +3.21u on 4u · +80.1% ROI

WNBA Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.

-0.28u
2-2 · 1u / 2u rule · 8u risked
GameTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsFinal
CON@DAL
Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings
171.5-105 / -115Over
80.3%
48.9%+31.42u63-83 (146) ✗
-2.00u
LAS@PDX
Los Angeles Sparks at Portland Fire
184.5-110 / -110Over
74.7%
50.0%+24.72u106-101 (207) ✓
+1.82u
TOR@GSV
Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries
165.5-105 / -115Over
71.3%
48.9%+22.42u79-96 (175) ✓
+1.90u
IND@MIN
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
193.5-105 / -115Under
59.5%
51.1%+8.42u100-108 (208) ✗
-2.00u

Rule record from 10/05 on: 2-0 · +3.72u on 4u · +93.1% ROI

Model's pick wonLost

WNBA Team Totals

Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.

+0.48u
4-3 · 1u at 8+ pts · 7u risked
GameTeamTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsPoints
CON@DAL
Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings
CON79.5-116 / -109Over
80.2%
50.7%+29.51u63 ✗
CON@DAL
Connecticut Sun at Dallas Wings
DAL92-110 / -114Over
66.6%
49.6%+17.11u83 ✗
IND@MIN
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
IND93.5-120 / -120Under
54.7%
50.0%+4.7Pass100 ✗
IND@MIN
Indiana Fever at Minnesota Lynx
MIN99.5-120 / -120Under
66.3%
50.0%+16.31u108 ✗
LAS@PDX
Los Angeles Sparks at Portland Fire
LAS93-116 / -108Over
65.3%
50.8%+14.51u106 ✓
LAS@PDX
Los Angeles Sparks at Portland Fire
PDX93.5-115 / -109Over
70.6%
50.6%+20.01u101 ✓
TOR@GSV
Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries
TOR76-119 / -105Over
69.3%
51.5%+17.81u79 ✓
TOR@GSV
Toronto Tempo at Golden State Valkyries
GSV89.5-110 / -114Over
67.3%
49.6%+17.71u96 ✓

Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-1 · +0.86u on 3u · +28.7% ROI

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).

+27.61u
30-10 · last 40 · 62u risked
DateGameMarketLeanPriceModelFinalResultStakeUnits won
10/07NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-13077.3%98-101Win2u+1.54
10/07NYL @ ATLTotalOver 170.5-11061.6%98-101 (199)Win2u+1.82
10/07NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 86.5-10564.4%101 ptsWin1u+0.95
10/07LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-12077.0%81-83Win2u+1.67
10/07LVA @ GSVTotalOver 157.5-10554.5%81-83 (164)Win2u+1.90
10/07LVA @ GSVTeam totalLVA Under 77.5-11063.1%81 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/07LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-11059.0%83 ptsWin1u+0.91
10/04NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-17077.2%82-92Win2u+1.18
10/04NYL @ ATLTotalOver 172.5-11053.9%82-92 (174)Win2u+1.82
10/04NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 88-11960.5%92 ptsWin1u+0.84
10/04LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-10570.6%60-71Win1u+0.95
10/04LVA @ GSVTotalOver 158.5-11554.7%60-71 (131)Loss2u-2.00
10/04LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-10760.4%71 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/02DAL @ GSVMoneylineGSV-34077.3%73-77Win2u+0.59
10/02DAL @ GSVTotalOver 159.5-10862.5%73-77 (150)Loss2u-2.00
10/02DAL @ GSVTeam totalDAL Over 75.5-11566.4%73 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/01IND @ LVAMoneylineLVA-19077.0%83-94Win2u+1.05
10/01IND @ LVATotalUnder 181.5-11551.5%83-94 (177)Win1u+0.87
09/30GSV @ DALTotalOver 158-10658.6%100-108 (208)Win2u+1.89
09/30ATL @ WASMoneylineATL-15872.1%93-75Win1u+0.63
09/30ATL @ WASTotalOver 165.5-10867.3%93-75 (168)Win2u+1.85
09/29MIN @ NYLMoneylineNYL+13085.8%71-87Win3u+3.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTotalUnder 173.5-11555.7%71-87 (158)Win2u+1.74
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalMIN Under 88-11169.3%71 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalNYL Over 85.5-10861.8%87 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/29LVA @ INDMoneylineIND-11270.4%89-99Win1u+0.89
09/29LVA @ INDTotalUnder 183.5-10863.1%89-99 (188)Loss2u-2.00
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalLVA Under 91.5-11060.8%89 ptsWin1u+0.91
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalIND Under 92.5-12072.2%99 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTotalOver 164.5-10668.6%77-92 (169)Win2u+1.89
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalWAS Over 78.5-11669.8%77 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 85.5-10862.4%92 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/27NYL @ MINTotalUnder 172.5-11053.6%91-75 (166)Win2u+1.82
09/27NYL @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90-10969.7%75 ptsWin1u+0.92
09/27IND @ LVATotalUnder 181.5-11052.4%85-102 (187)Loss1u-1.00
09/27DAL @ GSVTotalOver 154-11359.3%80-104 (184)Win2u+1.77
09/24TOR @ CONTotalOver 166.5-11063.2%81-95 (176)Win2u+1.82
09/24TOR @ CONTeam totalCON Over 84.5-11967.2%95 ptsWin1u+0.84
09/24LVA @ PHXTotalUnder 175.5-10553.8%100-82 (182)Loss2u-2.00
09/24IND @ MINTotalUnder 182.5-10565.4%66-86 (152)Win2u+1.90