WNBA · SportsGap
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+0.47uFinal
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4 games
WNBA · units by market rule
Moneyline · 1-3u ladder
46-7
+18.9% ROI · +19.6u on 104u
Totals leans · no units
82-66
+5.8% flat 1u · research only
Team totals · 1u at 8+ pts
106-76
+9.5% ROI · +17.4u on 182u
LVA@NYL
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
71-111
MLNYL-39758.1%-18.3Pass✓
TotalO 178.5-11062.6%+12.6✓
TTLVA O 85.5-11868.8%+17.61u✗-1.00u
TTNYL U 94-10760.4%+11.51u✗-1.00u
PHX@WAS
Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
75-95
MLWAS-12558.6%+5.4Pass✓
TotalO 167.5-11051.2%+1.2✓
TTPHX U 83-10957.8%+8.51u✓+0.92u
TTWAS U 85-11661.0%+10.21u✗-1.00u
DAL@MIN
Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx
90-103
MLMIN-25078.2%+9.62u✓+0.80u
TotalO 179.5-11072.5%+22.5✓
TTDAL O 87-10856.5%+7.4Pass✓
TTMIN O 92.5-11265.2%+15.21u✓+0.89u
GSV@LAS
Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
84-78
MLLAS+22070.6%+40.61u✗-1.00u
TotalU 169.5-10551.5%+2.6✓
TTGSV U 88-10667.2%+18.51u✓+0.94u
TTLAS U 82.5-10960.9%+11.61u✓+0.92u
How units are set
  • Moneyline: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
  • Totals: research only, no units.
  • Team totals: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Game totals are research only (no units): the book's prices have been more accurate than the model's, and no staking rule held up out of sample. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.

WNBA Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.

-0.20u
1-1 · 1-3u ladder · 3u risked
GameAway / HomeModel pickModelBookGapUnitsFinal
GSV@LAS
Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
-270 / +220LAS
70.6%
30.0%+40.61u84-78 ✗
-1.00u
DAL@MIN
Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx
+205 / -250MIN
78.2%
68.5%+9.62u90-103 ✓
+0.80u
PHX@WAS
Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
+105 / -125WAS
58.6%
53.2%+5.4Pass75-95 ✓
LVA@NYL
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
+304 / -397NYL
58.1%
76.3%-18.3Pass71-111 ✓

Rule record from 10/07 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

WNBA Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Research only: no units. The book's prices have been more accurate than the model's on totals.

4-0 · model leans
GameTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapFinal
DAL@MIN
Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx
179.5-110 / -110Over
72.5%
50.0%+22.590-103 (193) ✓
pass
LVA@NYL
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
178.5-110 / -110Over
62.6%
50.0%+12.671-111 (182) ✓
pass
GSV@LAS
Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
169.5-115 / -105Under
51.5%
48.9%+2.684-78 (162) ✓
pass
PHX@WAS
Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
167.5-110 / -110Over
51.2%
50.0%+1.275-95 (170) ✓
pass
Model's pick wonLost

WNBA Team Totals

Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.

+0.67u
4-3 · 1u at 8+ pts · 7u risked
GameTeamTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsPoints
DAL@MIN
Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx
DAL87-108 / -116Over
56.5%
49.2%+7.4Pass90 ✓
DAL@MIN
Dallas Wings at Minnesota Lynx
MIN92.5-112 / -112Over
65.2%
50.0%+15.21u103 ✓
GSV@LAS
Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
GSV88-118 / -106Under
67.2%
48.7%+18.51u84 ✓
GSV@LAS
Golden State Valkyries at Los Angeles Sparks
LAS82.5-115 / -109Under
60.9%
49.4%+11.61u78 ✓
LVA@NYL
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
LVA85.5-118 / -107Over
68.8%
51.2%+17.61u71 ✗
LVA@NYL
Las Vegas Aces at New York Liberty
NYL94-117 / -107Under
60.4%
48.9%+11.51u111 ✗
PHX@WAS
Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
PHX83-115 / -109Under
57.8%
49.4%+8.51u75 ✓
PHX@WAS
Phoenix Mercury at Washington Mystics
WAS85-108 / -116Under
61.0%
50.8%+10.21u95 ✗

Rule record from 10/07 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).

+14.35u
29-11 · last 40 · 50u risked
DateGameMarketLeanPriceModelFinalResultStakeUnits won
10/04NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-17077.2%82-92Win2u+1.18
10/04NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 88-11960.5%92 ptsWin1u+0.84
10/04LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-10570.6%60-71Win1u+0.95
10/04LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-10760.4%71 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/02DAL @ GSVMoneylineGSV-34077.3%73-77Win2u+0.59
10/02DAL @ GSVTeam totalDAL Over 75.5-11566.4%73 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/01IND @ LVAMoneylineLVA-19077.0%83-94Win2u+1.05
09/30ATL @ WASMoneylineATL-15872.1%93-75Win1u+0.63
09/29MIN @ NYLMoneylineNYL+13085.8%71-87Win3u+3.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalMIN Under 88-11169.3%71 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalNYL Over 85.5-10861.8%87 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/29LVA @ INDMoneylineIND-11270.4%89-99Win1u+0.89
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalLVA Under 91.5-11060.8%89 ptsWin1u+0.91
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalIND Under 92.5-12072.2%99 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalWAS Over 78.5-11669.8%77 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 85.5-10862.4%92 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/27NYL @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90-10969.7%75 ptsWin1u+0.92
09/24TOR @ CONTeam totalCON Over 84.5-11967.2%95 ptsWin1u+0.84
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalIND Under 93-11159.2%66 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90.5-11367.2%86 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/24GSV @ LASTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11468.7%76 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/22TOR @ CHIMoneylineCHI-23076.8%85-97Win2u+0.87
09/22TOR @ CHITeam totalTOR Over 86.5-12561.7%85 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/22MIN @ INDMoneylineIND-10573.9%77-96Win1u+0.95
09/22MIN @ INDTeam totalMIN Under 93.5-12071.8%77 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22LAS @ LVAMoneylineLVA-140085.1%79-89Win3u+0.21
09/22LAS @ LVATeam totalLVA Under 97.5-12063.7%89 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22GSV @ PDXTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11561.9%82 ptsWin1u+0.87
09/22GSV @ PDXTeam totalPDX Over 71.5-12060.6%90 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22CON @ WASTeam totalCON Over 71.5-12576.1%69 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/22CON @ WASTeam totalWAS Over 87.5-12075.0%79 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/21DAL @ PHXTeam totalDAL Over 89.5-12064.5%86 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/21DAL @ PHXTeam totalPHX Under 83.5-12058.2%87 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/19SEA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-80071.9%57-70Win1u+0.12
09/19SEA @ GSVTeam totalSEA Over 72-10865.1%57 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/19PHX @ DALMoneylineDAL-40076.7%82-87Win2u+0.50
09/19CHI @ ATLMoneylineATL-80076.4%81-106Win2u+0.25
09/18PDX @ GSVMoneylineGSV-90174.2%66-82Win1u+0.11
09/18PDX @ GSVTeam totalPDX Over 73-11266.4%66 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/18NYL @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 91.5-11965.5%81 ptsWin1u+0.84