WNBA · SportsGap
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-7.00uFinal
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3 games
WNBA · units by market rule
Moneyline · 1-3u ladder
46-7
+18.9% ROI · +19.6u on 104u
Totals · 1u / 2u · unproven
82-66
+5.9% ROI · +16.2u on 274u
Team totals · 1u at 8+ pts
106-76
+9.5% ROI · +17.4u on 182u
NYL@CON
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun
82-75
MLCON+30057.5%+33.2Pass✗
TotalO 171.5-11070.2%+20.22u✗-2.00u
TTNYL O 90-11068.6%+18.61u✗-1.00u
TTCON O 81.5-11254.4%+4.0Pass✗
LAS@WAS
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
70-80
MLWAS-27066.5%-3.6Pass✓
TotalO 171.5-11071.2%+21.22u✗-2.00u
TTLAS O 83-11261.3%+10.81u✗-1.00u
TTWAS O 89-11255.9%+5.5Pass✗
MIN@LVA
Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces
92-87
MLLVA+10556.7%+9.9Pass✗
TotalO 182.5-11553.2%+2.11u✗-1.00u
TTMIN U 92-11858.7%+7.1Pass–
TTLVA U 91-11457.4%+6.5Pass✓
How units are set
  • Moneyline: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
  • Totals (unproven): pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.
  • Team totals: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Totals (unproven): pass when the book rates our pick higher than the model does, 1 unit at a 0-3 point gap, 2 at 3+. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.

WNBA Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.

1-2 · model leans
GameAway / HomeModel pickModelBookGapUnitsFinal
NYL@CON
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun
-350 / +300CON
57.5%
24.3%+33.2Pass82-75 ✗
MIN@LVA
Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces
-125 / +105LVA
56.7%
46.8%+9.9Pass92-87 ✗
LAS@WAS
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
+220 / -270WAS
66.5%
70.0%-3.6Pass70-80 ✓

Rule record from 10/07 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

WNBA Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Units (unproven): pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.

-5.00u
0-3 · 1u / 2u rule · 5u risked
GameTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsFinal
LAS@WAS
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
171.5-110 / -110Over
71.2%
50.0%+21.22u70-80 (150) ✗
-2.00u
NYL@CON
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun
171.5-110 / -110Over
70.2%
50.0%+20.22u82-75 (157) ✗
-2.00u
MIN@LVA
Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces
182.5-115 / -105Over
53.2%
51.1%+2.11u92-87 (179) ✗
-1.00u

Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

Model's pick wonLost

WNBA Team Totals

Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.

-2.00u
0-2 · 1u at 8+ pts · 2u risked
GameTeamTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsPoints
LAS@WAS
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
LAS83-112 / -108Over
61.3%
50.4%+10.81u70 ✗
LAS@WAS
Los Angeles Sparks at Washington Mystics
WAS89-112 / -108Over
55.9%
50.4%+5.5Pass80 ✗
MIN@LVA
Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces
MIN92-103 / -118Under
58.7%
51.6%+7.1Pass92 P
MIN@LVA
Minnesota Lynx at Las Vegas Aces
LVA91-106 / -114Under
57.4%
50.9%+6.5Pass87 ✓
NYL@CON
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun
NYL90-110 / -110Over
68.6%
50.0%+18.61u82 ✗
NYL@CON
New York Liberty at Connecticut Sun
CON81.5-112 / -108Over
54.4%
50.4%+4.0Pass75 ✗

Rule record from 10/07 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).

+22.13u
29-11 · last 40 · 60u risked
DateGameMarketLeanPriceModelFinalResultStakeUnits won
10/04NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-17077.2%82-92Win2u+1.18
10/04NYL @ ATLTotalOver 172.5-11053.9%82-92 (174)Win2u+1.82
10/04NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 88-11960.5%92 ptsWin1u+0.84
10/04LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-10570.6%60-71Win1u+0.95
10/04LVA @ GSVTotalOver 158.5-11554.7%60-71 (131)Loss2u-2.00
10/04LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-10760.4%71 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/02DAL @ GSVMoneylineGSV-34077.3%73-77Win2u+0.59
10/02DAL @ GSVTotalOver 159.5-10862.5%73-77 (150)Loss2u-2.00
10/02DAL @ GSVTeam totalDAL Over 75.5-11566.4%73 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/01IND @ LVAMoneylineLVA-19077.0%83-94Win2u+1.05
10/01IND @ LVATotalUnder 181.5-11551.5%83-94 (177)Win1u+0.87
09/30GSV @ DALTotalOver 158-10658.6%100-108 (208)Win2u+1.89
09/30ATL @ WASMoneylineATL-15872.1%93-75Win1u+0.63
09/30ATL @ WASTotalOver 165.5-10867.3%93-75 (168)Win2u+1.85
09/29MIN @ NYLMoneylineNYL+13085.8%71-87Win3u+3.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTotalUnder 173.5-11555.7%71-87 (158)Win2u+1.74
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalMIN Under 88-11169.3%71 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalNYL Over 85.5-10861.8%87 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/29LVA @ INDMoneylineIND-11270.4%89-99Win1u+0.89
09/29LVA @ INDTotalUnder 183.5-10863.1%89-99 (188)Loss2u-2.00
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalLVA Under 91.5-11060.8%89 ptsWin1u+0.91
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalIND Under 92.5-12072.2%99 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTotalOver 164.5-10668.6%77-92 (169)Win2u+1.89
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalWAS Over 78.5-11669.8%77 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 85.5-10862.4%92 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/27NYL @ MINTotalUnder 172.5-11053.6%91-75 (166)Win2u+1.82
09/27NYL @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90-10969.7%75 ptsWin1u+0.92
09/27IND @ LVATotalUnder 181.5-11052.4%85-102 (187)Loss1u-1.00
09/27DAL @ GSVTotalOver 154-11359.3%80-104 (184)Win2u+1.77
09/24TOR @ CONTotalOver 166.5-11063.2%81-95 (176)Win2u+1.82
09/24TOR @ CONTeam totalCON Over 84.5-11967.2%95 ptsWin1u+0.84
09/24LVA @ PHXTotalUnder 175.5-10553.8%100-82 (182)Loss2u-2.00
09/24IND @ MINTotalUnder 182.5-10565.4%66-86 (152)Win2u+1.90
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalIND Under 93-11159.2%66 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90.5-11367.2%86 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/24GSV @ LASTotalUnder 157.5-11051.8%76-75 (151)Win1u+0.91
09/24GSV @ LASTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11468.7%76 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/24CHI @ WASTotalOver 168.5-11556.8%93-101 (194)Win2u+1.74
09/23DAL @ SEATotalUnder 172.5-11057.1%103-91 (194)Loss2u-2.00
09/23ATL @ NYLTotalOver 174.5-10851.4%83-65 (148)Loss1u-1.00