How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
How the units work. Every market uses the same gap rule: pass when the book rates our pick higher than the model does, 1 unit at a 0-3 point gap, 2 units at 3+. Moneylines held up in a backtest on this season's games. Totals and team totals are unproven: in the same backtest the bigger stakes won early in the season and gave it back after mid-August, and the market's prices were more accurate than the model. Treat those units as a live test, not a proven edge.
WNBA Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TOR@LVA Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces | +650 / -1000 | LVA | 86.8% | 87.2% | -0.4 | Pass | 73-93 ✓ |
WAS@LAS Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks | -200 / +165 | WAS | 61.4% | 63.9% | -2.5 | Pass | 82-88 ✗ |
CON@IND Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever | +900 / -2000 | IND | 81.4% | 90.5% | -9.1 | Pass | 91-111 ✓ |
PDX@ATL Portland Fire at Atlanta Dream | +525 / -750 | ATL | 74.2% | 84.7% | -10.4 | Pass | 101-83 ✗ |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
WNBA Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Units (unproven): pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PDX@ATL Portland Fire at Atlanta Dream | 180.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 58.3% | 50.0% | +8.3 | 2u | 101-83 (184) ✗ -2.00u |
CON@IND Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever | 177.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 56.5% | 50.0% | +6.5 | 2u | 91-111 (202) ✗ -2.00u |
WAS@LAS Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks | 167.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 54.7% | 50.0% | +4.7 | 2u | 82-88 (170) ✗ -2.00u |
TOR@LVA Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces | 176.5 | -110 / -110 | Over | 53.1% | 50.0% | +3.1 | 2u | 73-93 (166) ✗ -2.00u |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
WNBA Team Totals
Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units (unproven): pass under a 0-point gap, 1u at 0-3, 2u at 3+.
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CON@IND Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever | CON | 80.5 | -115 / -125 | Under | 54.7% | 50.9% | +3.8 | 2u | 91 ✗ |
CON@IND Connecticut Sun at Indiana Fever | IND | 97.5 | -120 / -120 | Under | 69.9% | 50.0% | +19.9 | 2u | 111 ✗ |
PDX@ATL Portland Fire at Atlanta Dream | PDX | 84.5 | -115 / -125 | Over | 51.7% | 49.1% | +2.6 | 1u | 101 ✓ |
PDX@ATL Portland Fire at Atlanta Dream | ATL | 96.5 | -120 / -120 | Under | 63.1% | 50.0% | +13.1 | 2u | 83 ✓ |
TOR@LVA Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces | TOR | 80 | -109 / -111 | Over | 64.9% | 49.8% | +15.1 | 2u | 73 ✗ |
TOR@LVA Toronto Tempo at Las Vegas Aces | LVA | 95 | -111 / -113 | Under | 51.6% | 50.2% | +1.4 | 1u | 93 ✓ |
WAS@LAS Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks | WAS | 86 | -115 / -105 | Under | 53.5% | 48.9% | +4.6 | 2u | 82 ✓ |
WAS@LAS Washington Mystics at Los Angeles Sparks | LAS | 81.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 63.8% | 50.0% | +13.8 | 2u | 88 ✗ |
Rule record from 10/05 on: 0-0 · +0.00u on 0u · starts with the next game
Recent results
Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with the 1u / 2u gap rule (passes left out).
| Date | Game | Market | Lean | Price | Model | Final | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -170 | 77.2% | 82-92 | Win | 2u | +1.18 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Total | Over 172.5 | -110 | 53.9% | 82-92 (174) | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Team total | NYL Over 85 | -107 | 52.1% | 82 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 88 | -119 | 60.5% | 92 pts | Win | 2u | +1.68 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -105 | 70.6% | 60-71 | Win | 2u | +1.90 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Total | Over 158.5 | -115 | 54.7% | 60-71 (131) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Team total | LVA Under 80.5 | -117 | 53.5% | 60 pts | Win | 1u | +0.85 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Team total | GSV Over 79.5 | -107 | 60.4% | 71 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -340 | 77.3% | 73-77 | Win | 2u | +0.59 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Total | Over 159.5 | -108 | 62.5% | 73-77 (150) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Team total | DAL Over 75.5 | -115 | 66.4% | 73 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Team total | GSV Over 83.5 | -120 | 56.0% | 77 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Moneyline | LVA | -190 | 77.0% | 83-94 | Win | 2u | +1.05 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Total | Under 181.5 | -115 | 51.5% | 83-94 (177) | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Team total | IND Over 89 | -110 | 51.8% | 83 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Team total | LVA Over 93 | -109 | 55.0% | 94 pts | Win | 2u | +1.83 |
| 09/30 | GSV @ DAL | Total | Over 158 | -106 | 58.6% | 100-108 (208) | Win | 2u | +1.89 |
| 09/30 | GSV @ DAL | Team total | GSV Under 80.5 | -113 | 56.8% | 100 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/30 | ATL @ WAS | Moneyline | ATL | -158 | 72.1% | 93-75 | Win | 2u | +1.27 |
| 09/30 | ATL @ WAS | Total | Over 165.5 | -108 | 67.3% | 93-75 (168) | Win | 2u | +1.85 |
| 09/30 | ATL @ WAS | Team total | WAS Over 81.5 | -110 | 55.9% | 75 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Moneyline | NYL | +130 | 85.8% | 71-87 | Win | 2u | +2.60 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Total | Under 173.5 | -115 | 55.7% | 71-87 (158) | Win | 2u | +1.74 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Team total | MIN Under 88 | -111 | 69.3% | 71 pts | Win | 2u | +1.80 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Team total | NYL Over 85.5 | -108 | 61.8% | 87 pts | Win | 2u | +1.85 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Moneyline | IND | -112 | 70.4% | 89-99 | Win | 2u | +1.79 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Total | Under 183.5 | -108 | 63.1% | 89-99 (188) | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Team total | LVA Under 91.5 | -110 | 60.8% | 89 pts | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Team total | IND Under 92.5 | -120 | 72.2% | 99 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Total | Over 164.5 | -106 | 68.6% | 77-92 (169) | Win | 2u | +1.89 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Team total | WAS Over 78.5 | -116 | 69.8% | 77 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 85.5 | -108 | 62.4% | 92 pts | Win | 2u | +1.85 |
| 09/27 | NYL @ MIN | Total | Under 172.5 | -110 | 53.6% | 91-75 (166) | Win | 2u | +1.82 |
| 09/27 | NYL @ MIN | Team total | NYL Over 84 | -107 | 51.3% | 91 pts | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 09/27 | NYL @ MIN | Team total | MIN Under 90 | -109 | 69.7% | 75 pts | Win | 2u | +1.83 |
| 09/27 | IND @ LVA | Total | Under 181.5 | -110 | 52.4% | 85-102 (187) | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | IND @ LVA | Team total | IND Under 89 | -112 | 53.2% | 85 pts | Win | 1u | +0.89 |
| 09/27 | IND @ LVA | Team total | LVA Under 93 | -118 | 53.9% | 102 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | DAL @ GSV | Total | Over 154 | -113 | 59.3% | 80-104 (184) | Win | 2u | +1.77 |
| 09/27 | DAL @ GSV | Team total | GSV Under 80.5 | -114 | 57.7% | 104 pts | Loss | 2u | -2.00 |