Lotte@Nippon-Ham
MLNippon-Ham-21861.2%-5.2✓
TotalU 9≈-12664.6%+10.9–
TotalU 8≈-11156.8%+6.1✗
TTLotte U 3.5≈-13359.4%+4.8✗
TTNippon-Ham U 4.5≈+10853.0%+7.1✗
SoftBank@ORIX
MLORIX+12553.1%+9.9✗
TotalO 6.5-12654.5%+0.8✓
TTSoftBank U 3.5≈-11454.3%+3.5✗
TTORIX O 2.5-12461.3%+8.5✓
Rakuten@Seibu
MLSeibu-14653.3%-4.3✓
TotalU 6.5≈-10559.7%+10.4✓
TTRakuten U 2.5≈+10450.2%+3.4✓
TTSeibu U 3.5≈-13064.7%+10.8✗
Giants@Hanshin
MLGiants+15851.0%+13.5✗
TotalU 6≈-14653.0%-4.0✓
TTGiants U 2.5≈-15450.2%-7.5✓
TTHanshin U 2.5≈+12251.2%+8.3✗
Yakult@Hiroshima
MLHiroshima-14151.2%-5.6✓
TotalU 7≈-11358.5%+7.4✓
TTYakult O 2.5-14256.8%+0.8✗
TTHiroshima U 3.5≈-12059.2%+7.2✗
Chunichi@DeNA
MLDeNA-15150.4%-8.1✓
TotalU 8.5≈-14672.0%+15.0✓
TTChunichi U 3.5≈-12056.8%+4.8✓
TTDeNA U 4.5≈-14171.2%+15.3✓
How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Research only: no units. Since mid-July the book's prices have been more accurate than the NPB model in every market. The totals model was updated on Oct 5, 2026; its leans are shown and graded here, but nothing is staked until it has a record of its own.
NPB Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points.
4-2 · model leans
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | +158 / -181 | Giants | 51.0% | 37.6% | +13.5 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@ORIX SoftBank at ORIX | -141 / +125 | ORIX | 53.1% | 43.2% | +9.9 | Lost ✗ |
Rakuten@Seibu Rakuten at Seibu | +129 / -146 | Seibu | 53.3% | 57.6% | -4.3 | Won ✓ |
Lotte@Nippon-Ham Lotte at Nippon-Ham | +188 / -218 | Nippon-Ham | 61.2% | 66.4% | -5.2 | Won ✓ |
Yakult@Hiroshima Yakult at Hiroshima | +125 / -141 | Hiroshima | 51.2% | 56.8% | -5.6 | Won ✓ |
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | +134 / -151 | DeNA | 50.4% | 58.5% | -8.1 | Won ✓ |
NPB Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.
5-1 · model leans
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | 8.5 | +124 / ≈-146 | Under | 72.0% | 57.1% | +15.0 | Won ✓ |
Lotte@Nippon-Ham Lotte at Nippon-Ham | 9 | +108 / ≈-126 | Under | 64.6% | 53.7% | +10.9 | Push – |
Rakuten@Seibu Rakuten at Seibu | 6.5 | -111 / ≈-105 | Under | 59.7% | 49.3% | +10.4 | Won ✓ |
Yakult@Hiroshima Yakult at Hiroshima | 7 | -103 / ≈-113 | Under | 58.5% | 51.1% | +7.4 | Won ✓ |
Lotte@Nippon-Ham Lotte at Nippon-Ham | 8 | -105 / ≈-111 | Under | 56.8% | 50.7% | +6.1 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@ORIX SoftBank at ORIX | 6.5 | -126 / ≈+108 | Over | 54.5% | 53.7% | +0.8 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | 6 | +124 / ≈-146 | Under | 53.0% | 57.1% | -4.0 | Won ✓ |
NPB Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price.
5-7 · model leans
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | Chunichi | 3.5 | -101 / ≈-120 | Under | 56.8% | 52.0% | +4.8 | Won ✓ |
Chunichi@DeNA Chunichi at DeNA | DeNA | 4.5 | +116 / ≈-141 | Under | 71.2% | 55.8% | +15.3 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | Giants | 2.5 | +125 / ≈-154 | Under | 50.2% | 57.7% | -7.5 | Won ✓ |
Giants@Hanshin Giants at Hanshin | Hanshin | 2.5 | -149 / ≈+122 | Under | 51.2% | 43.0% | +8.3 | Lost ✗ |
Lotte@Nippon-Ham Lotte at Nippon-Ham | Lotte | 3.5 | +110 / ≈-133 | Under | 59.4% | 54.5% | +4.8 | Lost ✗ |
Lotte@Nippon-Ham Lotte at Nippon-Ham | Nippon-Ham | 4.5 | -131 / ≈+108 | Under | 53.0% | 45.9% | +7.1 | Lost ✗ |
Rakuten@Seibu Rakuten at Seibu | Rakuten | 2.5 | -126 / ≈+104 | Under | 50.2% | 46.8% | +3.4 | Won ✓ |
Rakuten@Seibu Rakuten at Seibu | Seibu | 3.5 | +107 / ≈-130 | Under | 64.7% | 53.9% | +10.8 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@ORIX SoftBank at ORIX | SoftBank | 3.5 | -106 / ≈-114 | Under | 54.3% | 50.9% | +3.5 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@ORIX SoftBank at ORIX | ORIX | 2.5 | -124 / ≈+102 | Over | 61.3% | 52.8% | +8.5 | Won ✓ |
Yakult@Hiroshima Yakult at Hiroshima | Yakult | 2.5 | -142 / ≈+117 | Over | 56.8% | 56.0% | +0.8 | Lost ✗ |
Yakult@Hiroshima Yakult at Hiroshima | Hiroshima | 3.5 | -101 / ≈-120 | Under | 59.2% | 52.0% | +7.2 | Lost ✗ |
Model's pick wonLost