ORIX@Rakuten
MLORIX+10555.8%+8.4✗
TotalO 6.5-12752.2%-1.5✗
TTORIX U 3.5≈-14250.4%-5.6✓
TTRakuten U 3.5≈-13462.3%+7.6✗
DeNA@Giants
MLGiants-11155.5%+4.4✓
TotalO 5.5-12862.6%+8.5✓
TTDeNA O 2.5-11557.0%+5.9✓
TTGiants O 2.5-12561.0%+8.0✓
SoftBank@Nippon-Ham
MLSoftBank-17764.6%+2.7✗
TotalU 8≈-14851.2%-6.2✓
TTSoftBank U 4.5≈-13253.1%-1.3✓
TTNippon-Ham O 2.5-10853.2%+3.7✗
Seibu@Lotte
MLSeibu-14053.1%-3.6✗
TotalO 6.5-12260.6%+7.6✗
TTSeibu O 3.5-10557.0%+8.1✗
TTLotte O 2.5-12359.5%+7.0✗
Hiroshima@Chunichi
MLChunichi-15254.2%-4.5✗
TotalO 5.5-14554.5%-2.5✓
TTHiroshima U 2.5≈-11152.1%+1.9✗
TTChunichi U 3.5≈-14162.3%+6.6✓
Hanshin@Yakult
MLHanshin-27663.8%-7.1✓
TotalO 7.5+10553.2%+6.3✓
TTHanshin U 4.5≈-11157.0%+6.8✗
TTYakult O 2.5+12052.8%+9.4✗
How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined runs both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's runs only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before first pitch, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
Research only: no units. Since mid-July the book's prices have been more accurate than the NPB model in every market. The totals model was updated on Oct 5, 2026; its leans are shown and graded here, but nothing is staked until it has a record of its own.
NPB Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points.
2-4 · model leans
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ORIX@Rakuten ORIX at Rakuten | +105 / -118 | ORIX | 55.8% | 47.4% | +8.4 | Lost ✗ |
DeNA@Giants DeNA at Giants | -101 / -111 | Giants | 55.5% | 51.1% | +4.4 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Nippon-Ham SoftBank at Nippon-Ham | -177 / +155 | SoftBank | 64.6% | 62.0% | +2.7 | Lost ✗ |
Seibu@Lotte Seibu at Lotte | -140 / +124 | Seibu | 53.1% | 56.6% | -3.6 | Lost ✗ |
Hiroshima@Chunichi Hiroshima at Chunichi | +135 / -152 | Chunichi | 54.2% | 58.6% | -4.5 | Lost ✗ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | -276 / +232 | Hanshin | 63.8% | 70.9% | -7.1 | Won ✓ |
NPB Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. ≈ marks an under price derived from the over price.
4-2 · model leans
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DeNA@Giants DeNA at Giants | 5.5 | -128 / ≈+110 | Over | 62.6% | 54.1% | +8.5 | Won ✓ |
Seibu@Lotte Seibu at Lotte | 6.5 | -122 / ≈+105 | Over | 60.6% | 53.0% | +7.6 | Lost ✗ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | 7.5 | +105 / ≈-123 | Over | 53.2% | 46.9% | +6.3 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Rakuten ORIX at Rakuten | 6.5 | -127 / ≈+108 | Over | 52.2% | 53.8% | -1.5 | Lost ✗ |
Hiroshima@Chunichi Hiroshima at Chunichi | 5.5 | -145 / ≈+124 | Over | 54.5% | 57.0% | -2.5 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Nippon-Ham SoftBank at Nippon-Ham | 8 | +126 / ≈-148 | Under | 51.2% | 57.4% | -6.2 | Won ✓ |
NPB Team Totals
Each team's runs over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price.
5-7 · model leans
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DeNA@Giants DeNA at Giants | DeNA | 2.5 | -115 / ≈-105 | Over | 57.0% | 51.1% | +5.9 | Won ✓ |
DeNA@Giants DeNA at Giants | Giants | 2.5 | -125 / ≈+103 | Over | 61.0% | 53.0% | +8.0 | Won ✓ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | Hanshin | 4.5 | -109 / ≈-111 | Under | 57.0% | 50.2% | +6.8 | Lost ✗ |
Hanshin@Yakult Hanshin at Yakult | Yakult | 2.5 | +120 / ≈-146 | Over | 52.8% | 43.4% | +9.4 | Lost ✗ |
Hiroshima@Chunichi Hiroshima at Chunichi | Hiroshima | 2.5 | -109 / ≈-111 | Under | 52.1% | 50.2% | +1.9 | Lost ✗ |
Hiroshima@Chunichi Hiroshima at Chunichi | Chunichi | 3.5 | +115 / ≈-141 | Under | 62.3% | 55.7% | +6.6 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Rakuten ORIX at Rakuten | ORIX | 3.5 | +117 / ≈-142 | Under | 50.4% | 56.0% | -5.6 | Won ✓ |
ORIX@Rakuten ORIX at Rakuten | Rakuten | 3.5 | +111 / ≈-134 | Under | 62.3% | 54.7% | +7.6 | Lost ✗ |
Seibu@Lotte Seibu at Lotte | Seibu | 3.5 | -105 / ≈-115 | Over | 57.0% | 48.9% | +8.1 | Lost ✗ |
Seibu@Lotte Seibu at Lotte | Lotte | 2.5 | -123 / ≈+101 | Over | 59.5% | 52.6% | +7.0 | Lost ✗ |
SoftBank@Nippon-Ham SoftBank at Nippon-Ham | SoftBank | 4.5 | +109 / ≈-132 | Under | 53.1% | 54.3% | -1.3 | Won ✓ |
SoftBank@Nippon-Ham SoftBank at Nippon-Ham | Nippon-Ham | 2.5 | -108 / ≈-112 | Over | 53.2% | 49.6% | +3.7 | Lost ✗ |
Model's pick wonLost