WNBA · SportsGap
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3 games
WNBA · units by market rule
Moneyline · 1-3u ladder
48-7
+21.1% ROI · +22.8u on 108u
Totals leans · no units
84-66
+7.0% flat 1u · research only
Team totals · 1u at 8+ pts
108-77
+9.9% ROI · +18.2u on 185u
LVA@IND
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
86-84
MLIND-11573.4%+22.41u✗-1.00u
TotalO 193.5-11050.6%+0.6✗
TTLVA U 96.5-11553.9%+4.8Pass✓
TTIND U 96.5-12060.9%+10.91u✓+0.83u
LAS@MIN
Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
89-82
MLMIN-140081.2%-8.73u✗-3.00u
TotalO 188.5-11062.5%+12.5✗
TTLAS O 86.5-12065.7%+15.71u✓+0.83u
TTMIN U 101.5-11552.0%+2.9Pass✓
TOR@PDX
Toronto Tempo at Portland Fire
83-97
MLPDX-15070.0%+12.5Pass✓
TotalO 187.5-11084.0%+34.0✗
TTTOR O 92.5-12066.2%+16.21u✗-1.00u
TTPDX O 95.5-12069.6%+19.61u✓+0.83u
How units are set
  • Moneyline: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
  • Totals: research only, no units.
  • Team totals: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
How to read this page

Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.

Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.

A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.

How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Game totals are research only (no units): the book's prices have been more accurate than the model's, and no staking rule held up out of sample. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.

WNBA Moneylines

Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.

-4.00u
0-2 · 1-3u ladder · 4u risked
GameAway / HomeModel pickModelBookGapUnitsFinal
LVA@IND
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
-105 / -115IND
73.4%
51.1%+22.41u86-84 ✗
-1.00u
TOR@PDX
Toronto Tempo at Portland Fire
+125 / -150PDX
70.0%
57.4%+12.5Pass83-97 ✓
LAS@MIN
Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
+850 / -1400MIN
81.2%
89.9%-8.73u89-82 ✗
-3.00u

Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-0 · +3.21u on 4u · +80.1% ROI

WNBA Totals

Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Research only: no units. The book's prices have been more accurate than the model's on totals.

0-3 · model leans
GameTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapFinal
TOR@PDX
Toronto Tempo at Portland Fire
187.5-110 / -110Over
84.0%
50.0%+34.083-97 (180) ✗
pass
LAS@MIN
Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
188.5-110 / -110Over
62.5%
50.0%+12.589-82 (171) ✗
pass
LVA@IND
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
193.5-110 / -110Over
50.6%
50.0%+0.686-84 (170) ✗
pass
Model's pick wonLost

WNBA Team Totals

Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.

+1.50u
3-1 · 1u at 8+ pts · 4u risked
GameTeamTotalOver / UnderLeanModelBookGapUnitsPoints
LAS@MIN
Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
LAS86.5-120 / -120Over
65.7%
50.0%+15.71u89 ✓
LAS@MIN
Los Angeles Sparks at Minnesota Lynx
MIN101.5-125 / -115Under
52.0%
49.1%+2.9Pass82 ✓
LVA@IND
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
LVA96.5-125 / -115Under
53.9%
49.1%+4.8Pass86 ✓
LVA@IND
Las Vegas Aces at Indiana Fever
IND96.5-120 / -120Under
60.9%
50.0%+10.91u84 ✓
TOR@PDX
Toronto Tempo at Portland Fire
TOR92.5-120 / -120Over
66.2%
50.0%+16.21u83 ✗
TOR@PDX
Toronto Tempo at Portland Fire
PDX95.5-120 / -120Over
69.6%
50.0%+19.61u97 ✓

Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-1 · +0.86u on 3u · +28.7% ROI

Recent results

Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).

+17.72u
29-11 · last 40 · 50u risked
DateGameMarketLeanPriceModelFinalResultStakeUnits won
10/07NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-13077.3%98-101Win2u+1.54
10/07NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 86.5-10564.4%101 ptsWin1u+0.95
10/07LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-12077.0%81-83Win2u+1.67
10/07LVA @ GSVTeam totalLVA Under 77.5-11063.1%81 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/07LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-11059.0%83 ptsWin1u+0.91
10/04NYL @ ATLMoneylineATL-17077.2%82-92Win2u+1.18
10/04NYL @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 88-11960.5%92 ptsWin1u+0.84
10/04LVA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-10570.6%60-71Win1u+0.95
10/04LVA @ GSVTeam totalGSV Over 79.5-10760.4%71 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/02DAL @ GSVMoneylineGSV-34077.3%73-77Win2u+0.59
10/02DAL @ GSVTeam totalDAL Over 75.5-11566.4%73 ptsLoss1u-1.00
10/01IND @ LVAMoneylineLVA-19077.0%83-94Win2u+1.05
09/30ATL @ WASMoneylineATL-15872.1%93-75Win1u+0.63
09/29MIN @ NYLMoneylineNYL+13085.8%71-87Win3u+3.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalMIN Under 88-11169.3%71 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/29MIN @ NYLTeam totalNYL Over 85.5-10861.8%87 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/29LVA @ INDMoneylineIND-11270.4%89-99Win1u+0.89
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalLVA Under 91.5-11060.8%89 ptsWin1u+0.91
09/29LVA @ INDTeam totalIND Under 92.5-12072.2%99 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalWAS Over 78.5-11669.8%77 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/27WAS @ ATLTeam totalATL Over 85.5-10862.4%92 ptsWin1u+0.93
09/27NYL @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90-10969.7%75 ptsWin1u+0.92
09/24TOR @ CONTeam totalCON Over 84.5-11967.2%95 ptsWin1u+0.84
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalIND Under 93-11159.2%66 ptsWin1u+0.90
09/24IND @ MINTeam totalMIN Under 90.5-11367.2%86 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/24GSV @ LASTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11468.7%76 ptsWin1u+0.88
09/22TOR @ CHIMoneylineCHI-23076.8%85-97Win2u+0.87
09/22TOR @ CHITeam totalTOR Over 86.5-12561.7%85 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/22MIN @ INDMoneylineIND-10573.9%77-96Win1u+0.95
09/22MIN @ INDTeam totalMIN Under 93.5-12071.8%77 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22LAS @ LVAMoneylineLVA-140085.1%79-89Win3u+0.21
09/22LAS @ LVATeam totalLVA Under 97.5-12063.7%89 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22GSV @ PDXTeam totalGSV Under 85.5-11561.9%82 ptsWin1u+0.87
09/22GSV @ PDXTeam totalPDX Over 71.5-12060.6%90 ptsWin1u+0.83
09/22CON @ WASTeam totalCON Over 71.5-12576.1%69 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/22CON @ WASTeam totalWAS Over 87.5-12075.0%79 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/21DAL @ PHXTeam totalDAL Over 89.5-12064.5%86 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/21DAL @ PHXTeam totalPHX Under 83.5-12058.2%87 ptsLoss1u-1.00
09/19SEA @ GSVMoneylineGSV-80071.9%57-70Win1u+0.12
09/19SEA @ GSVTeam totalSEA Over 72-10865.1%57 ptsLoss1u-1.00