PHX@CON
Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun
MLCON+18563.8%+30.2Pass✓
TotalU 174.5-11051.3%+1.3✓
TTPHX U 89.5-10959.8%+10.51u✓+0.92u
TTCON O 84.5-10864.1%+15.01u✗-1.00u
72-75
ATL@WAS
Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics
MLATL-17954.3%-6.9Pass✗
TotalO 171.5-10566.8%+17.8✗
TTATL O 87-11256.0%+6.0Pass✗
TTWAS O 83.5-11562.0%+11.41u✗-1.00u
GSV@DAL
Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings
MLDAL-11576.4%+25.32u✗-2.00u
TotalU 163.5-11050.9%+0.9✗
TTGSV U 81.5-11166.7%+16.91u✗-1.00u
TTDAL O 82.5-11252.3%+2.4Pass✗
How units are set
- Moneyline: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
- Totals: research only, no units.
- Team totals: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
How to read this page
Each row is one game. Model is our model's probability that its pick wins. Book is the probability the sportsbook's price implies once its built-in margin (the vig) is removed, so the two sides add up to 100%. Gap is model minus book, in percentage points: a positive gap means the model likes the pick more than the market does, and the bigger the gap, the more they disagree.
Totals are the combined points both teams score, over or under the posted number; team totals count one team's points only. Units is the suggested stake, where 1 unit is whatever amount you normally bet; Pass means no bet. Once a game is final, a green row means the model's pick won and red means it lost. Every result is graded at the price posted before tip-off, and no pick is ever removed afterwards.
A gap is a disagreement, not a guarantee: the market is often right, and good picks still lose often. Never bet more than you can afford to lose.
How the units work. Moneylines stake on the model's win probability for its pick: pass under 70%, 1 unit at 70-75%, 2 at 75-80%, 3 at 80%+. These are mostly big home favourites that pay little, so one loss at 3 units wipes out several wins. Team totals: 1 unit when the model is 8+ points above the book's no-vig price, otherwise pass. Game totals are research only (no units): the book's prices have been more accurate than the model's, and no staking rule held up out of sample. The moneyline and team-total rules were set on Oct 7 from this season's games, so their season records flatter them; the record from Oct 7 on is the real test.
WNBA Moneylines
Model win probability for its pick vs. the book's price with the vig removed. Gap is in percentage points. Units: pass under 70%, 1u at 70-75%, 2u at 75-80%, 3u at 80%+.
-2.00u
0-1 · 1-3u ladder · 2u risked
| Game | Away / Home | Model pick | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PHX@CON Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun | -225 / +185 | CON | 63.8% | 33.6% | +30.2 | Pass | 72-75 ✓ |
GSV@DAL Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings | -105 / -115 | DAL | 76.4% | 51.1% | +25.3 | 2u | 94-76 ✗ -2.00u |
ATL@WAS Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics | -179 / +146 | ATL | 54.3% | 61.2% | -6.9 | Pass | 74-79 ✗ |
Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-0 · +3.21u on 4u · +80.1% ROI
WNBA Totals
Model probability on its side of the posted total vs. the book's no-vig price. Research only: no units. The book's prices have been more accurate than the model's on totals.
1-2 · model leans
| Game | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Final |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL@WAS Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics | 171.5 | -105 / -115 | Over | 66.8% | 48.9% | +17.8 | 74-79 (153) ✗ pass |
PHX@CON Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun | 174.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 51.3% | 50.0% | +1.3 | 72-75 (147) ✓ pass |
GSV@DAL Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings | 163.5 | -110 / -110 | Under | 50.9% | 50.0% | +0.9 | 94-76 (170) ✗ pass |
Model's pick wonLost
WNBA Team Totals
Each team's points over or under its posted team total: model vs. the book's no-vig price. Units: pass under an 8-point gap, 1u at 8+.
-2.08u
1-3 · 1u at 8+ pts · 4u risked
| Game | Team | Total | Over / Under | Lean | Model | Book | Gap | Units | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ATL@WAS Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics | ATL | 87 | -112 / -112 | Over | 56.0% | 50.0% | +6.0 | Pass | 74 ✗ |
ATL@WAS Atlanta Dream at Washington Mystics | WAS | 83.5 | -115 / -109 | Over | 62.0% | 50.6% | +11.4 | 1u | 79 ✗ |
GSV@DAL Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings | GSV | 81.5 | -113 / -111 | Under | 66.7% | 49.8% | +16.9 | 1u | 94 ✗ |
GSV@DAL Golden State Valkyries at Dallas Wings | DAL | 82.5 | -112 / -113 | Over | 52.3% | 49.9% | +2.4 | Pass | 76 ✗ |
PHX@CON Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun | PHX | 89.5 | -116 / -109 | Under | 59.8% | 49.3% | +10.5 | 1u | 72 ✓ |
PHX@CON Phoenix Mercury at Connecticut Sun | CON | 84.5 | -108 / -116 | Over | 64.1% | 49.2% | +15.0 | 1u | 75 ✗ |
Rule record from 10/07 on: 2-1 · +0.86u on 3u · +28.7% ROI
Recent results
Last 40 graded model leans across moneylines, totals and team totals. Every lean is staked with its market's rule (passes left out).
+17.72u
29-11 · last 40 · 50u risked
| Date | Game | Market | Lean | Price | Model | Final | Result | Stake | Units won |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/07 | NYL @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -130 | 77.3% | 98-101 | Win | 2u | +1.54 |
| 10/07 | NYL @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 86.5 | -105 | 64.4% | 101 pts | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 10/07 | LVA @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -120 | 77.0% | 81-83 | Win | 2u | +1.67 |
| 10/07 | LVA @ GSV | Team total | LVA Under 77.5 | -110 | 63.1% | 81 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/07 | LVA @ GSV | Team total | GSV Over 79.5 | -110 | 59.0% | 83 pts | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Moneyline | ATL | -170 | 77.2% | 82-92 | Win | 2u | +1.18 |
| 10/04 | NYL @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 88 | -119 | 60.5% | 92 pts | Win | 1u | +0.84 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -105 | 70.6% | 60-71 | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 10/04 | LVA @ GSV | Team total | GSV Over 79.5 | -107 | 60.4% | 71 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -340 | 77.3% | 73-77 | Win | 2u | +0.59 |
| 10/02 | DAL @ GSV | Team total | DAL Over 75.5 | -115 | 66.4% | 73 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 10/01 | IND @ LVA | Moneyline | LVA | -190 | 77.0% | 83-94 | Win | 2u | +1.05 |
| 09/30 | ATL @ WAS | Moneyline | ATL | -158 | 72.1% | 93-75 | Win | 1u | +0.63 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Moneyline | NYL | +130 | 85.8% | 71-87 | Win | 3u | +3.90 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Team total | MIN Under 88 | -111 | 69.3% | 71 pts | Win | 1u | +0.90 |
| 09/29 | MIN @ NYL | Team total | NYL Over 85.5 | -108 | 61.8% | 87 pts | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Moneyline | IND | -112 | 70.4% | 89-99 | Win | 1u | +0.89 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Team total | LVA Under 91.5 | -110 | 60.8% | 89 pts | Win | 1u | +0.91 |
| 09/29 | LVA @ IND | Team total | IND Under 92.5 | -120 | 72.2% | 99 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Team total | WAS Over 78.5 | -116 | 69.8% | 77 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/27 | WAS @ ATL | Team total | ATL Over 85.5 | -108 | 62.4% | 92 pts | Win | 1u | +0.93 |
| 09/27 | NYL @ MIN | Team total | MIN Under 90 | -109 | 69.7% | 75 pts | Win | 1u | +0.92 |
| 09/24 | TOR @ CON | Team total | CON Over 84.5 | -119 | 67.2% | 95 pts | Win | 1u | +0.84 |
| 09/24 | IND @ MIN | Team total | IND Under 93 | -111 | 59.2% | 66 pts | Win | 1u | +0.90 |
| 09/24 | IND @ MIN | Team total | MIN Under 90.5 | -113 | 67.2% | 86 pts | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/24 | GSV @ LAS | Team total | GSV Under 85.5 | -114 | 68.7% | 76 pts | Win | 1u | +0.88 |
| 09/22 | TOR @ CHI | Moneyline | CHI | -230 | 76.8% | 85-97 | Win | 2u | +0.87 |
| 09/22 | TOR @ CHI | Team total | TOR Over 86.5 | -125 | 61.7% | 85 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/22 | MIN @ IND | Moneyline | IND | -105 | 73.9% | 77-96 | Win | 1u | +0.95 |
| 09/22 | MIN @ IND | Team total | MIN Under 93.5 | -120 | 71.8% | 77 pts | Win | 1u | +0.83 |
| 09/22 | LAS @ LVA | Moneyline | LVA | -1400 | 85.1% | 79-89 | Win | 3u | +0.21 |
| 09/22 | LAS @ LVA | Team total | LVA Under 97.5 | -120 | 63.7% | 89 pts | Win | 1u | +0.83 |
| 09/22 | GSV @ PDX | Team total | GSV Under 85.5 | -115 | 61.9% | 82 pts | Win | 1u | +0.87 |
| 09/22 | GSV @ PDX | Team total | PDX Over 71.5 | -120 | 60.6% | 90 pts | Win | 1u | +0.83 |
| 09/22 | CON @ WAS | Team total | CON Over 71.5 | -125 | 76.1% | 69 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/22 | CON @ WAS | Team total | WAS Over 87.5 | -120 | 75.0% | 79 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/21 | DAL @ PHX | Team total | DAL Over 89.5 | -120 | 64.5% | 86 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/21 | DAL @ PHX | Team total | PHX Under 83.5 | -120 | 58.2% | 87 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |
| 09/19 | SEA @ GSV | Moneyline | GSV | -800 | 71.9% | 57-70 | Win | 1u | +0.12 |
| 09/19 | SEA @ GSV | Team total | SEA Over 72 | -108 | 65.1% | 57 pts | Loss | 1u | -1.00 |